EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, January 12, 2026

Tom Bowley - January 12, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Nothing has changed, either short-term or long-term. I still see short-term warning signs that are more applicable for short-term traders. I also still see the S&P 500 going much, much higher over time - great news for long-term investors.

As you'll see from our sustainability ratios below, money is rotating in a cautious manner, which is why I remain somewhat cautious as we work our way into Q1 2026.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth. Here is what I had to say about this ratio last week and nothing has really changed:

"I don't the like the steady decline in that top panel, which ignores gaps. For the past several months, it appears as though money has rotated rather heavily toward the more value-oriented S&P 500. I believe significant rotation like this away from growth and into value is unhealthy."

IWM:QQQ

I continue to like the steady, bullish rotation into small caps. If the weakness that I believe could be heading our way materializes in 2026, we may find that the IWM acts as a hedge and continues to outperform. For those currently in the market, I definitely think it makes sense to diversify into the small cap area.

XLY:XLP

Last week was a good one in terms of rotation in the XLY:XLP ratio. That certainly doesn't negate the past few months of deterioration, but it's a start in terms of trying to right the ship. I'd need to see a lot more strength in the top panel before I'd become less cautious.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. I wouldn't want to bet against what this indicator is telling us, which is that we should be cautious in 2026. For the first time since mid-2025, we are clearly seeing this 253-day SMA turn back higher. That suggests that sentiment may have bottomed and that pessimism will begin to return to higher levels over time. That nearly always occurs when stock prices are declining or, at least, consolidating.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so and I've updated them today. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of Monday, January 12th:

JPM – monthly PPO could be rolling over after a strong 3-year run
BA – attempting to close at highest weekly level in over two years
FFIV – tested its April low, rebounded and is now testing 20-week EMA
MA – key price support remains near 525
GS – has more than doubled since April low; very overbought on monthly chart
FDX – just breaking out to all-time high
AAPL – recent weakness has resulted in bullish 20-week EMA test
CHRW – another that has now doubled off April low; very overbought
JBHT – surge continues; key overhead resistance is from 210-215
STX - extremely overbought and negative divergence is now on weekly chart
HSY – rallying again, but 200 price resistance remains critical for now
DIS – multi-year consolidation remains; needs to clear 125
MSCI – been in fairly tight 520-590 range since rallying off April low
SBUX - looking to close over 90 this week for the first time since August
KRE – excellent uptrend since October, looking to clear 68-70 resistance
ED – bounced again off 95 support; currently in 95-105 range
AJG – bouncing on weekly chart, but 20-week EMA and 280 are resistance
NSC – love the long-term chart, 270-300 is current range
RHI – did 25 mark the bottom? First bullish step is close over 20-week EMA
ADM – weekly chart solid, breakout above 64.50 is next key
BG – bounced off 20-week EMA support and broke out again; 109 next?
CVS – continues to trend higher and above rising 20-week EMA
IPG – acquired by Omnicom Group (OMC); will no longer track this one
HRL - moved back up to test 25 resistance and failed, currently in 21-25 range
DE – needs to clear 500, then 530; 430-440 is support range
LULU - cleared 20-week EMA, that is now huge support
TTD - lost support at 39-40, struggling to clear that resistance level now
META - as mentioned last month, can it clear its falling 20-week EMA?
ADBE - looks like potential reversing right shoulder, but new low would negate

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: JPM ($898 billion), BK ($84 billion), DAL ($47 billion)
Wednesday: BAC ($410 billion), WFC ($300 billion), C ($216 billion)
Thursday: TSM ($1.65 trillion), MS ($294 billion), GS ($280 billion), BLK ($169 billion)
Friday: PNC ($86 billion), STT ($37 billion), MTB ($32 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: December CPI, October new home sales
Wednesday: November retail sales (delayed), November PPI (delayed), October businessinventories (delayed), December existing home sales
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, January empire state manufacturing survey, January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Friday: December industrial production & capacity utilization

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jan 12: -21.45% (Ex: cumulative gains = -4.58% over 54 trading days since 1950. -4.58% x 253/54 = -21.45%)
Jan 13: -20.43%
Jan 14: +60.37%
Jan 15: +33.89%
Jan 16: +22.80%
Jan 17: +20.13%
Jan 18: +10.39%
Jan 19: -7.22%
Jan 20: -67.02%
Jan 21: +3.84%
Jan 22: -7.35%
Jan 23: +40.39%
Jan 24: -15.36%
Jan 25: +10.34%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jan 12: -25.57%
Jan 13: +0.75%
Jan 14: +84.91%
Jan 15: +35.41%
Jan 16: +60.86%
Jan 17: +52.88%
Jan 18: +35.23%
Jan 19: +46.70%
Jan 20: -69.20%
Jan 21: -15.94%
Jan 22: -28.63%
Jan 23: +93.41%
Jan 24: -24.68%
Jan 25: -5.40%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jan 12: -40.26%
Jan 13: +17.87%
Jan 14: +57.85%
Jan 15: -29.55%
Jan 16: +67.29%
Jan 17: +11.78%
Jan 18: -14.79%
Jan 19: +10.17%
Jan 20: -103.10%
Jan 21: -37.80%
Jan 22: +5.91%
Jan 23: +97.43%
Jan 24: -1.36%
Jan 25: +4.75%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Last week was a solid week for U.S. stocks and we saw all-time record highs on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, small cap Russell 2000, and the Transportation Index ($TRAN). The NASDAQ 100 is approaching its all-time high. Making all-time highs is ALWAYS bullish as the combination of price and volume is my #1 indicator. However, making those highs with a significant number of warning signs tells me to remain vigilant regarding taking profits and keeping stops in play. The only thing left between all-time highs and a potential correction, in my opinion, is a price breakdown. That would be our confirmation.

Here are a few things I'll be watching this week:

10/28 to 1/18 Bullish Period. At the end of this week, historical tailwinds will end. This period has accounted for half of the S&P 500 gains since 1950, which is quite staggering. It's certainly one reason why many corrections and bear markets have begun in the January/February time frame. Let's see how we close out this period and definitely be careful if prices start to roll over.

Earnings. This week kicks off Q4 earnings as JP Morgan (JPM) reports on Tuesday before the opening bell. Banks, in particular, will be very interesting to watch after the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed over the weekend AND President Trump proposed a 10% cap on interest rates that credit card companies charge. Both banks and credit card companies are being hit hard to open this week.

Growth vs. Value. I am continuing to watch this relative performance (IWF:IWD). We've been trending lower for weeks, which is a warning sign. It doesn't guarantee us that the stock market is going lower, but it is what happens just before many significant market tops.

Happy trading!
Tom