EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, February 2, 2026

Tom Bowley - February 02, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
February Seasonality (SEASCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, January 30th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. The SEASCL was just completed this afternoon and should be available on our website later today or tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The beauty of this chart is that it takes A LOT of weakness to really move the needle. Because of that, we don't have to worry about whipsaw action. Signals are rare. During a secular bull market like the one we've enjoyed since 2013, the signal is simply STAY LONG.

This is why I continue to say that I believe we'll continue to set all-time highs into the foreseeable future (looking out months and years) and any weakness, if we see it, is likely to be very short-lived (possible correction I've discussed past several weeks).

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Deterioration continues as money rotates to the more value-oriented S&P 500 during the trading day.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps continued to feel a slight short-term pinch last week on a relative basis, but that doesn't change the overall absolute and relative strength in this asset class. For those simply remaining long through any period of consolidation/selling, it makes sense to maintain some exposure to small caps.

XLY:XLP

This is one of my favorite intermarket relationships as it tells us a story about Wall Street's interpretation of the health of the consumer. If Wall Street is choosing discretionary stocks over staples stocks, that's a bullish signal. But when the opposite is occurring, like now, it's a warning sign. Last week showed further weakness in this relationship. I find it very difficult to be bullish in the near-term with such a massive shift away from risk assets.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many short-term bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026. The last dip in this 5-day SMA hit an unusually-low 0.47, the lowest reading we've seen in well over a year. We did see a brief market top and some selling last week, but strength in today's session has us back near the 7000 level on the S&P 500.
Just be aware that the risks of a more significant selloff occur when this 5-day SMA reading reaches the 0.40s.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. I wouldn't want to bet against what this indicator is telling us, which is that we should be cautious in 2026. For the first time since mid-2025, we are clearly seeing this 253-day SMA turn back higher. I do think there's the possibility that this reading turns lower one more time and perhaps prints a double bottom - similar to what we saw in late 2021. Still, the fact that this has begun to turn higher should give bulls a major reason to step back, pause, and re-evaluate how much risk should be taken in this environment.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, so I'll provide another brief analysis within the next week or two. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of Monday, January 12th:

JPM – monthly PPO could be rolling over after a strong 3-year run
BA – attempting to close at highest weekly level in over two years
FFIV – tested its April low, rebounded and is now testing 20-week EMA
MA – key price support remains near 525
GS – has more than doubled since April low; very overbought on monthly chart
FDX – just breaking out to all-time high
AAPL – recent weakness has resulted in bullish 20-week EMA test
CHRW – another that has now doubled off April low; very overbought
JBHT – surge continues; key overhead resistance is from 210-215
STX - extremely overbought and negative divergence is now on weekly chart
HSY – rallying again, but 200 price resistance remains critical for now
DIS – multi-year consolidation remains; needs to clear 125
MSCI – been in fairly tight 520-590 range since rallying off April low
SBUX - looking to close over 90 this week for the first time since August
KRE – excellent uptrend since October, looking to clear 68-70 resistance
ED – bounced again off 95 support; currently in 95-105 range
AJG – bouncing on weekly chart, but 20-week EMA and 280 are resistance
NSC – love the long-term chart, 270-300 is current range
RHI – did 25 mark the bottom? First bullish step is close over 20-week EMA
ADM – weekly chart solid, breakout above 64.50 is next key
BG – bounced off 20-week EMA support and broke out again; 109 next?
CVS – continues to trend higher and above rising 20-week EMA
IPG – acquired by Omnicom Group (OMC); will no longer track this one
HRL - moved back up to test 25 resistance and failed, currently in 21-25 range
DE – needs to clear 500, then 530; 430-440 is support range
LULU - cleared 20-week EMA, that is now huge support
TTD - lost support at 39-40, struggling to clear that resistance level now
META - as mentioned last month, can it clear its falling 20-week EMA?
ADBE - looks like potential reversing right shoulder, but new low would negate

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: PLTR ($362 billion), DIS ($199 billion), NXPI ($59 billion), TER ($39 billion)
Tuesday: AMD ($411 billion), MRK ($269 billion), PEP ($203 billion), AMGN ($185 billion)
Wednesday: GOOGL ($4.09 trillion), LLY ($968 billion), ABBV ($390 billion), UBER ($170 billion)
Thursday: AMZN ($2.58 trillion), COP ($127 billion), BMY ($111 billion), FTNT ($61 billion)
Friday: PM ($277 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: January ISM manufacturing
Tuesday: December JOLTS, January ISM services
Wednesday: January ADP employment report
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: January nonfarm payrolls, February consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Feb 2: +45.54% (Ex: cumulative gains = +9.72% over 54 trading days since 1950. +9.72% x 253/54 = +45.54%)
Feb 3: +32.29%
Feb 4: -14.94%
Feb 5: -34.10%
Feb 6: +34.30%
Feb 7: +7.17%
Feb 8: -36.33%
Feb 9: -45.50%
Feb 10: +1.31%
Feb 11: +0.32%
Feb 12: +43.97%
Feb 13: +48.48%
Feb 14: +11.40%
Feb 15: +58.41%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Feb 2: +37.65%
Feb 3: +30.20%
Feb 4: -5.10%
Feb 5: -24.49%
Feb 6: +66.99%
Feb 7: -13.89%
Feb 8: +9.50%
Feb 9: -50.46%
Feb 10: +31.39%
Feb 11: +60.54%
Feb 12: +52.11%
Feb 13: +38.54%
Feb 14: +61.75%
Feb 15: +82.64%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Feb 2: +21.08%
Feb 3: +57.79%
Feb 4: -36.03%
Feb 5: -32.89%
Feb 6: +74.45%
Feb 7: +10.71%
Feb 8: +29.93%
Feb 9: -22.55%
Feb 10: -24.86%
Feb 11: +90.59%
Feb 12: +99.63%
Feb 13: +32.91%
Feb 14: +41.05%
Feb 15: +140.61%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The S&P 500 made a historic move last week, moving above 7000 for the first time in its history. It wasn't able to hold that move into a close, but simply pushing above 7000 on an intraday basis was notable. After backing off last week, the S&P 500 is making another run at 7000 today, hitting 6992 this afternoon, as it attempts to make history.

Here are a few things I'll be watching this week:

Jobs. It was announced today that the January nonfarm payrolls report, due out on Friday morning, will be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. However, we'll still get clues from the ADP employment report, due out on Wednesday morning.

Earnings. We have two more Mag 7 reports this week (GOOGL and AMZN) to add to the four from last week (MSFT, META, TSLA, AAPL). So far, earnings have done little to rectify the rotation that we've seen from growth (IWF) to value (IWD). Also, the next "tier" of key earnings will increase with companies like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Palantir (PLTR) reporting quarterly results.

January Effect. Well, it's in the books now. The S&P 500 closed out January with a 1.37% gain, which places it near the top of Quadrant 3. S&P 500 Januarys falling in Quadrant 3 tend to have rather flat "balance of year" returns, adding one more not-so-great signal into the mix.\

Intermarket Ratios. I provide these in this Weekly Market Report every single week and they're not looking great. Maybe "this time will be different" and Wall Street will ignore this rotation away from risk assets and drive prices higher. I need to see it, however, because I understand what history tells us when this rotation happens.....and it's usually not pretty.

Happy trading!
Tom