EB Weekly Market Report - Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Tom Bowley - February 17, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, February 13th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

A little over a week ago, U.S. stocks were on the cusp of a significant breakdown that could've led to wider and more significant losses. Then key price support held and stocks rallied this past week, moving back up to challenge overhead price resistance. But once again, sellers met that rally and the bulls were rebuffed at key price resistance. I can't tell you which way this short-term trading range will break, but I CAN tell you one thing. The above Big Picture chart doesn't care. The long-term picture remains clearly bullish.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

It was another rough week for this intermarket relationship. We did see a slight tick back up on Friday, but we're going to need to see a lot more relative strength in the QQQ before growing excited about the prospects of U.S. stocks.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps had another very solid week among asset classes. The IWM bounced off 50-day SMA support last week, just as it had at the end of December. The relative intraday performance of the IWM suggests that money continues to rotate into this area of the market.

XLY:XLP

This is one of my favorite intermarket relationships as it tells us a story about Wall Street's interpretation of the health of the consumer. If Wall Street is choosing discretionary stocks over staples stocks, that's a bullish signal. But when the opposite is occurring, like now, it's a warning sign. I review a lot of signals, but I have to admit that, right now, this remains one of the most bearish.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.
Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many short-term bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026. We've jumped back up to the upper-.60s again (.68), so one of two scenarios is likely to play out. Either the CPCE 5-day average tops out here and the S&P 500 once again holds support at 6797, or selling escalates, we lose 6797 support on the S&P 500 and the 5-day SMA of the CPCE moves toward that .75 level and marks a much more significant bottom - possibly in the 6500-6525 area?

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. I wouldn't want to bet against what this indicator is telling us, which is that we should be cautious in 2026. For the first time since mid-2025, we are clearly seeing this 253-day SMA turn back higher. I think there's a chance that we see some whipsaw in this 253-day reading, much like we saw in 2018 and 2019. That was the start of Jerome Powell's leadership at the Fed, and the new Fed chief might be met with the same sort of volatility and indecision in the market.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks look as of Monday, February 9th:

JPM – a bit stretched on the monthly chart; great performer though
BA – gaining strength and approaching MAJOR resistance from 250-275
FFIV – climbing higher after printing double bottom in November
MA – 525 price support holding, solid entry point with weekly RSI at 44
GS – pausing in 2026 after huge advance in 2025
FDX – accelerating to upside after breaking to all-time high to open year
AAPL – tested October low in 240s, now testing overhead resistance
CHRW – another huge move higher last 10 months or so; overbought
JBHT – surging with transports; big breakout over 215 last week
STX - violently overbought; been an awesome performer for us
HSY – broke 2-year price resistance at 200 with strong quarterly earnings
DIS – continues to flounder; 100-125 is the range for now
MSCI – tested key resistance in 630-640 range before selling off last week
SBUX - rallied last week to an 11-month high
KRE – broke to an all-time high last week; regional banks look solid
ED – looks to be forming right side of cup on 5-year weekly chart
AJG – selling has monthly RSI near 40 for the first time in a decade
NSC – broken out of cup with handle and to an all-time high
RHI – improved in January, but rolling over again; 25 is key support
ADM – weekly uptrend now obvious; solid
BG – beautiful breakout to all-time high in January; looks solid
CVS – looking to hold support in 70-75 range
HRL - bouncing off downtrend; falling 20-month EMA is resistance
DE – breaking to all-time high, support now around 525
LULU - 20-week EMA lost, looking for double bottom near 160
TTD - in a tortured industry group and continues to fall; 39-40 is resistance
META - jumped back above its 20-week EMA; in a 600-800 trading range
ADBE - lost key price support at 275 and in a struggling software space; could be heading towards 200

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: MDT ($130 billion), PANW ($115 billion), CDNS ($82 billion)
Wednesday: ADI ($165 billion), BKNG ($139 billion), CVNA ($79 billion), DASH ($76 billion)
Thursday: WMT ($1.03 trillion), DE ($166 billion), NEM ($136 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: February empire state manufacturing survey
Wednesday: November & December housing starts & building permits (delayed), December durable goods (delayed), FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, February Philadelphia manufacturing survey, January pending home sales
Friday: Q4 GDP, December personal income & spending, December PCE index, November & December new home sales (delayed), February consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Feb 16: -21.36% (Ex: cumulative gains =-3.97% over 47 trading days since 1950. -3.97% x 253/47 = -21.36%)
Feb 17: -31.56%
Feb 18: +2.62%
Feb 19: -24.32%
Feb 20: -3.39%
Feb 21: -62.20%
Feb 22: +10.49%
Feb 23: -34.99%
Feb 24: +25.84%
Feb 25: -11.05%
Feb 26: +14.18%
Feb 27: -66.23%
Feb 28: -12.58%
Mar 1: +78.25%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Feb 16: -39.94%
Feb 17: -52.28%
Feb 18: -12.56%
Feb 19: -48.56%
Feb 20: -22.51%
Feb 21: -125.07%
Feb 22: -11.55%
Feb 23: -35.59%
Feb 24: +55.35%
Feb 25: +6.00%
Feb 26: +18.90%
Feb 27: -110.43%
Feb 28: -17.49%
Mar 1: +132.23%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Feb 16: +40.51%
Feb 17: -66.49%
Feb 18: -37.63%
Feb 19: -22.46%
Feb 20: -58.41%
Feb 21: -110.95%
Feb 22: -1.86%
Feb 23: -65.05%
Feb 24: +73.51%
Feb 25: +19.24%
Feb 26: +29.70%
Feb 27: -55.33%
Feb 28: -61.64%
Mar 1: +146.28%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

I think it's important to remain objective when reviewing the health of U.S. stocks and that isn't always easy. As many of you know, I would MUCH rather be bullish than cautious or bearish. I still see really good things for U.S. stocks later in 2026 and into the balance of this decade. My biggest concern is just the short-term and what might transpire over the next several months, not years.

Here are a few things that matter to me:

Price Support/Resistance. We've now been trading back and forth in a very narrow trading range on the S&P 500 from 6797 to 7000. This range has held for nearly two months as U.S. stocks look for direction.

Volatility ($VIX) and Sentiment. This should bother everyone. Market makers continue to price wide spreads on short-term S&P options, suggesting that we should expect high volatility ahead. If you follow the VIX, then you know that high volatility is generally associated with selling. Given the suddenly-rising CPCE, traders are apparently growing more nervous. A breakdown could trigger a lot more shorting. Throw in a VIX that has been rising throughout this S&P 500 range and you have a recipe for a lot more selling ahead IF price support is lost at 6797.

Technology (XLK). As I mention frequently, this is the critical sector for the S&P 500 as the XLK currently comprises roughly one-third of the entire S&P 500. The XLK has held key price support in the 134-136 range since breaking above this level in early September. If the XLK loses price support, it will be very difficult for the S&P 500 to hang onto its 6797 price support. Again, if a breakdown were to occur, I believe selling would escalate quickly.

Seasonality. The second half of calendar quarters have performed considerably worse than first halves of calendar quarters, with Q4 being the only exception. Historically, next week has had a TENDENCY to see selling as the February 16th-23rd period has produced annualized returns of -21.24% since 1950. There have been 364 trading days within this time period over the past 76 years, with cumulative losses of -30.56%. So, for those interested, the annualized return is calculated as follows:

-30.56% divided by 364 days = -0.084% per day. -0.084% per day x 253 trading days in the year = -21.24%

It's important to understand that, of the 364 days in this period, 163 days have been higher and 201 days have been lower. So DO NOT expect some sort of massive selloff or crash. I'm simply pointing out that the TENDENCY is for the S&p 500 to sell off a bit next week and that it's the start of the second half of Q1, which can be more challenging as well.

Happy trading!
Tom