EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, February 23, 2026

Tom Bowley - February 23, 2026

Special Note - Portfolios

We will enter into our Model, Aggressive, and Income Portfolios at the close today. The stocks included in each portfolio were announced last Wednesday, but we wanted to wait until after the Monday that follows options expiration Friday before entering.

Please keep in mind that many warning signs are still flashing, particularly our sustainability ratios and sentiment. While we will enter into our portfolios at today's closing prices, members can decide (1) whether to enter the portfolios, (2) at what point to enter (now, 20-day or 50-day MA tests, price support, etc.), (3) and how much to commit. I always say that our portfolios should be treated as though they are VERY AGGRESSIVE investments, with significant potential risk of loss.

There are a ton of uncertainties in the market that can impact not only the direction of the stock market, but also the sector and industry group rotation within it. The Supreme Court decision to reverse tariffs will no doubt create a ton of uncertainty. The uncertainty will not just be how trade deals are impacted around the globe, but also will revolve around the potential refunds that the U.S. government will owe. At this point, I imagine it will be extremely difficult to determine who exactly has ultimately paid the tariff. Were tariffs passed along to the consumer? In some cases, I'd guess no, while in other cases, yes. How is this all going to get figured out and how many years will it take? In the meantime, how do investors determine whether a company is a good investment with all the tariff "noise" in the background? These are all great questions without any solid answers at this point.

Wall Street hates uncertainty and there's going to be plenty of it relating to tariffs for quite awhile.

Also, I've been discussing a key trading range on the S&P 500 between 6797 and 7000. Loss of this trading range to the downside could add to technical selling in U.S. stocks, affecting the portfolios as well. Today's low on the S&P 500 was 6819, so we're perilously close to challenging the lower end of this range now.

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:
Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, February 20th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The tariffs are adding a lot of spice to short-term market direction. But on the above chart, tariffs are nothing but a lot of noise. All of the tariff-related selling back in February through April 2025 is barely even noticed on this chart. That's the beauty of long-term investing for those with that mindset. Just let your investments ride unless something clearly meaningful takes place technically on the long-term chart. Or if we were to be swamped with tons of long-term warning signals. Currently, we only issues of the short-term variety.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

The good news is that we saw some strength in the more growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 last week. The bad news is that we still have a LONG way to go to repair this chart.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap IWM had another decent week, but struggled when it approached its earlier February price high. Still, its relative performance vs. the QQQ remains strong.

XLY:XLP

This is much like the QQQ vs. SPY relationship. It improved last week, but it's been so beaten down that's there much, much more work to do. This relationship has taken another turn lower today, at least through the midpoint of the session. It's a clear warning sign regarding the health of the consumer and one that typically leads to selling in our major indices.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many short-term bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026. Last week's high, however, did move back above .70 and did coincide with at least a short-term rally. If the S&P 500 breaks down, I could definitely see this 5-day SMA move above .75 for the first time since September 2024.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. I wouldn't want to bet against what this indicator is telling us, which is that we should be cautious in 2026. The uptrend is clearly underway and history tells us that when this 253-day SMA is rising, it usually means a difficult and challenging environment for the S&P 500.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of Monday, February 9th:

JPM – a bit stretched on the monthly chart; great performer though
BA – gaining strength and approaching MAJOR resistance from 250-275
FFIV – climbing higher after printing double bottom in November
MA – 525 price support holding, solid entry point with weekly RSI at 44
GS – pausing in 2026 after huge advance in 2025
FDX – accelerating to upside after breaking to all-time high to open year
AAPL – tested October low in 240s, now testing overhead resistance
CHRW – another huge move higher last 10 months or so; overbought
JBHT – surging with transports; big breakout over 215 last week
STX - violently overbought; been an awesome performer for us
HSY – broke 2-year price resistance at 200 with strong quarterly earnings
DIS – continues to flounder; 100-125 is the range for now
MSCI – tested key resistance in 630-640 range before selling off last week
SBUX - rallied last week to an 11-month high
KRE – broke to an all-time high last week; regional banks look solid
ED – looks to be forming right side of cup on 5-year weekly chart
AJG – selling has monthly RSI near 40 for the first time in a decade
NSC – broken out of cup with handle and to an all-time high
RHI – improved in January, but rolling over again; 25 is key support
ADM – weekly uptrend now obvious; solid
BG – beautiful breakout to all-time high in January; looks solid
CVS – looking to hold support in 70-75 range
HRL - bouncing off downtrend; falling 20-month EMA is resistance
DE – breaking to all-time high, support now around 525
LULU - 20-week EMA lost, looking for double bottom near 160
TTD - in a tortured industry group and continues to fall; 39-40 is resistance
META - jumped back above its 20-week EMA; in a 600-800 trading range
ADBE - lost key price support at 275 and in a struggling software space; could be heading towards 200

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: FANG ($50 billion), KEYS ($41 billion)
Tuesday: HD ($377 billion), MELI ($101 billion)
Wednesday: NVDA ($4.57 trillion), TJX ($174 billion), CRM ($174 billion), LOW ($156 billion)
Thursday: RY ($239 billion), TD ($160 billion), INTU ($106 billion), MNST ($80 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: December factory orders
Tuesday: December Case-Shiller home price index, December wholesale inventories, February consumer confidence
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: January PPI, November construction spending (delayed), December construction spending, February Chicago PMI

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Feb 23: -34.99% (Ex: cumulative gains = -7.05% over 51 trading days since 1950. -7.05% x 253/51 = -34.99%)
Feb 24: +25.84%
Feb 25: -11.05%
Feb 26: +14.18%
Feb 27: -66.23%
Feb 28: -12.58%
Mar 1: +78.25%
Mar 2: +39.20%
Mar 3: +2.84%
Mar 4: +44.05%
Mar 5: +24.11%
Mar 6: -24.31%
Mar 7: -55.83%
Mar 8: +0.60%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Feb 23: -35.59%
Feb 24: +55.35%
Feb 25: +6.00%
Feb 26: +18.90%
Feb 27: -110.43%
Feb 28: -17.49%
Mar 1: +132.23%
Mar 2: +8.14%
Mar 3: -24.15%
Mar 4: +72.12%
Mar 5: -3.59%
Mar 6: -38.81%
Mar 7: -47.82%
Mar 8: +7.66%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Feb 23: -65.05%
Feb 24: +73.51%
Feb 25: +19.24%
Feb 26: +29.70%
Feb 27: -55.33%
Feb 28: -61.64%
Mar 1: +146.28%
Mar 2: -1.57%
Mar 3: +3.91%
Mar 4: +92.50%
Mar 5: -39.76%
Mar 6: -42.00%
Mar 7: -23.95%
Mar 8: +13.71%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Any time I think that U.S. stocks need a pause, I rarely have a clue as to what the news might be that causes the pause. After the Supreme Court decision on Friday, it's apparent to me that another round of major uncertainty regarding tariffs could be a contributing factor to short-term weakness, or perhaps further consolidation.

Here are a few things that matter to me:

Rotation. I am always paying attention to where the money is going, but given the new tariff news, it's going to be even more important. On Friday, money rotated back to growth a bit. Was it because of the SCOTUS decision and likely to continue or was it because of max pain? I don't have that answer, which is why I'll keep watching to see how the growth vs. value trade plays out this week and throughout the quarter.

Volatility ($VIX) and Sentiment. I mentioned these two sentiment factors in last week's report and nothing has really changed. If anything, the CPCE issue has grown a bit worse as we saw the 5-day SMA of the CPCE move above 70 for the first time in awhile. Meanwhile, the VIX touched 22 earlier. 23 has been the high in 2026, so the VIX is climbing into a dangerous area, where a rapid acceleration in selling can occur. As fear grows, morning gap downs can intensify as well.

Technology (XLK). While the S&P 500 moved closer to a breakdown at 6797 today, hitting an intraday low of 6819, the XLK remains well above its key support level in the 134-136 area as it trades at 139.01 currently and only dipped to 138.15 at today's low. If the XLK can continue strengthening on a relative basis, it'll certainly help the S&P 500 hang onto support.

Semiconductors/Earnings. There isn't a bigger earnings report for the S&P 500 than NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), which is the largest company in the world. NVDA has been downtrending vs. its peers in the semi space and its AD line has been declining as well, suggesting possible distribution. We'll find out on Wednesday after the close if any of this matters.

Happy trading!

Tom