EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, March 16, 2026

Tom Bowley - March 16, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, March 13th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. We have discontinued the Upcoming Earnings ChartLists until the new earnings season kicks in during mid April.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

We can fall the necessary 12% or so from all-time highs to reach key price support at 6144 on the S&P 500 and it really wouldn't move the needle much on this long-term chart. Buy-and-hold investors should simply ignore the news (noise) and continue holding.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

We recently saw this ratio turning up in a big way, which, in my opinion, is bullish as it provides evidence of a "risk on" type of market environment. Unfortunately, it appears to be rolling over, with the recent relative strength of the QQQ looking more and more like a short-term bounce.

IWM:QQQ

While it was another difficult week for small caps - just like about everything else - last week's action wasn't that bad for a couple reasons. First, price support held on the IWM near 245. Second, if we ignore gaps, the IWM:QQQ ratio continues to climb and remains in an uptrend.

XLY:XLP

March hasn't been particularly kind to the discretionary stocks (XLY). The XLY:XLP ratio appears to be rolling over again and some could argue that the reason is that the risk of a recession is increasing. I'm not ready to call for a recession, but this ratio rolling over as the S&P 500 loses further ground is not a good look for the bulls.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many short-term bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026. That is not the case right now, however. We're hovering in the mid-.60s and the S&P 500 keeps printing new lows. It might take a 5-day reading closer to .75 to truly mark a short-term, or even longer-term, bottom.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. It seems that long-term sentiment is now "resetting". Any time we see a bottom in this 253-day SMA and a turn to the upside, it's a challenge for U.S. equities. Please note that these turns to the upside have previously occurred in the middle of our secular bull market. So while the recent turn higher does suggest a challenge ahead, it does NOT signal the start of a significant bear market.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked on MONTHLY charts as of Monday, March 2nd:

JPM – look for more sideways action ahead as the monthly PPO rolls over
BA – could be on the verge of a major move; needs to clear 250-275
FFIV – long-term trend is higher, now back above its rising 20-month EMA
MA – 525 price support holding, solid entry point with weekly RSI at 44
GS – likely needs a rest after a massive 2-year run; 20-month EMA near 700
FDX – this one looks great, just breaking above double top at 300
AAPL – steady climber, consolidating 2025 rise; 20-month EMA is support
CHRW – overbought after massive 9-10 month run higher
JBHT – a leader in the red-hot transportation area; monthly PPO strengthens
STX - monthly RSI at 92+, so clearly overbought; what a massive rise
HSY - waited patiently for a breakout above 200, now rolling
DIS - 125 is the number; clear that and DIS could be off to the races
MSCI - lots of consolidation, needs to break above 650
SBUX - working on its 5th year of consolidation, needs a breakout
KRE – ran to all-time high before pulling back recently
ED – breaking out as it heads into the seasonally-favorable month of March
AJG - steady performer for 15 years; might have found support with bounce
NSC – like JBHT, rallying and breaking out on heels of transports strength
RHI – January rally gave way to big February selling; expect a dividend cut
ADM – rallying back over past year with monthly PPO now above zero line
BG – breakout after 4 years of consolidation a very bullish signal
CVS – holding 70 support remains key, continues to improve
HRL - short-term rally is nice, but key will be clearing 27.50
DE – latest earnings report sent stock to new all-time high; excellent chart
LULU - needs a catalyst to end its 2+ year slide; looking for 150 to hold
TTD - free falling within one of worst industries - software; 15-20 is support
META - remains in range from 600-800; may consolidate further
ADBE - broke down below 2022 low, reports earnings in two weeks
KMB - added recently as its monthly RSI at 40 could present an opportunity

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: DLTR ($22 billion)
Tuesday: ESLT ($38 billion), LULU ($19 billion)
Wednesday: MU ($456 billion), JBL ($27 billion), WSM ($21 billion)
Thursday: BABA ($320 billion), ACN ($121 billion), FDX ($83 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: March empire state manufacturing survey, February industrial production & capacity utilization
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, February pending home sales
Wednesday: February PPI, January factory orders, FOMC policy statement
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, January wholesale inventories, January new home sales
Friday: None

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Mar 16: +32.01% (Ex: cumulative gains = +6.70% over 53 trading days since 1950. +6.70% x 253/53 = +32.01%)
Mar 17: +86.75%
Mar 18: +35.69%
Mar 19: -24.44%
Mar 20: -10.39%
Mar 21: -12.24%
Mar 22: -25.58%
Mar 23: +32.57%
Mar 24: +25.26%
Mar 25: +16.19%
Mar 26: +75.48%
Mar 27: -38.97%
Mar 28: -13.74%
Mar 29: +51.39%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Mar 16: -8.26%
Mar 17: +96.69%
Mar 18: +34.85%
Mar 19: -7.19%
Mar 20: -66.36%
Mar 21: +16.41%
Mar 22: -6.61%
Mar 23: +38.54%
Mar 24: +22.41%
Mar 25: +16.28%
Mar 26: +107.10%
Mar 27: -105.25%
Mar 28: -77.74%
Mar 29: +53.31%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Mar 16: -89.92%
Mar 17: +153.80%
Mar 18: +15.09%
Mar 19: +26.92%
Mar 20: -72.55%
Mar 21: +28.78%
Mar 22: -102.39%
Mar 23: +13.92%
Mar 24: +28.23%
Mar 25: +101.42%
Mar 26: +180.20%
Mar 27: -72.21%
Mar 28: -66.72%
Mar 29: +64.48%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The S&P 500 certainly appeared to be rolling over last week, prior to today's jump (which occurred mostly at the opening bell). That rolling over occurred with our sustainability ratios mostly rolling over as well, not a great combination. Energy (XLE) and utilities (XLU) were the only two sectors to net a positive gain for the week. Therefore, the selling broadened a bit last week as more and more industry groups saw selling intensify. I'm now watching short-term support on the S&P 500 in the 6540-6550 area, with short-term resistance close to 6800.

Here are a few things that I'll be watching this week:

The War in Iran and Crude Oil. Crude oil prices ($WTIC) have dropped 5% today, but they still remain elevated at just under $94 per barrel. All eyes remain on the Strait of Hormuz and whether oil ships freely in the region later this week. If it doesn't and fear builds, we could see another push higher in crude above the $100 mark.

The Fed and Inflation. The two biggest things happening this week, outside of the war, is the two-day Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and the February PPI report. It's nearly a foregone conclusion that there'll be no rate change at this meeting, but what will Fed Chief Powell say about the potential impact of the Iran War on the direction of interest rates? The February PPI will be released on Wednesday morning, but it will show essentially no impact from the war as the war began in late February, after the majority of inflation data was collected. We'll certainly see more of an impact in the March CPI and PPI reports.

Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) has made its way back to the upper end of its current trading range from 60000-75000. This is a risk asset, so if it can break above 75000 and hold, it would at least provide us a better signal than if this resistance fails to be broken again.

Sentiment. Any time the Volatility Index ($VIX) is in the 20s, I'm going to be very nervous about short-term action. The VIX is down by more than 12% today, but it still resides above 23 - and that can be a problem. We simply cannot rule out a sudden burst of impulsive selling given the current emotional state of the market.

Happy trading!
Tom