EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, March 23, 2026

Tom Bowley - March 23, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, March 20th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. We have discontinued the Upcoming Earnings ChartLists until the new earnings season kicks in during mid April.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

This morning, our major indices received some good news regarding the war with Iran as President Trump said there were productive talks between the two countries over the weekend and the U.S. agreed to delay bombing energy infrastructure in Iran for at least 5 days, while talks continue. This remains a short-term volatile issue and is, rightfully, front page news. However, U.S. stocks are dealing with a myriad of issues, in addition to the war and the resulting surging crude oil prices.

Despite all of that and near-term loss of S&P 500 support at 6538 on Friday, the long-term picture hasn't changed. The stock market rarely goes straight up and corrections, and even cyclical bear markets, are often seen during secular bull markets. The current secular bull market was confirmed in April 2013 and has raged on ever since, despite several challenging market periods that included both cyclical bear markets and corrections.

I believe the best long-term strategy is to simply stay the course and hold for new all-time S&P 500 highs down the road, either later in 2026 or in 2027.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Last week's S&P 500 breakdown was encouraging in one sense. Rotation was not heavily towards value-oriented stocks. In other words, the relative strength that we've seen in the growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 since February didn't erode much last week, especially on an intraday basis.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) broke down below 245 price support, setting a fresh 4-month low last week. There was a silver lining, however, as small caps gained ground vs. their large cap counterparts on both an intraday and closing basis last week. I remain of the opinion that rate cuts are still coming, but will likely be delayed until 2027, especially with the war and rising crude oil prices working their way through inflation numbers the next few to several months.

XLY:XLP

This might be the most encouraging under-the-surface ratio out there right now. As stocks have turned considerably lower in March, note how this ratio has been moving higher? This suggests that Wall Street is rotating back towards the more aggressive discretionary area of consumer stocks.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The following paragraph is what I wrote last week -

"Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. While the .75+ level has been where many short-term bottoms have occurred in the past, the .65 or so level has been marking short-term bottoms in 2025 and 2026. That is not the case right now, however. We're hovering in the mid-.60s and the S&P 500 keeps printing new lows. It might take a 5-day reading closer to .75 to truly mark a short-term, or even longer-term, bottom."

Well, fear in the options world escalated last week and we did, in fact, see the 5-day CPCE move beyond .75, finishing at .78 - our highest 5-day reading in over 18 months. We'll have to wait to see if this level of pessimism again marks a short-term bottom. But what I can say is how quickly futures jumped this morning with some good news regarding the war. Snap back rallies are the norm during a high-volatility selloff like the one we saw last week.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. It seems that long-term sentiment is now "resetting". Any time we see a bottom in this 253-day SMA and a turn to the upside, it's been a challenge for U.S. equities. Please note that these turns to the upside have previously occurred in the middle of our secular bull market. So while the recent turn higher does suggest a challenge ahead, it does NOT signal the start of a significant bear market.

I have nothing to add to what was said last week.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked on MONTHLY charts as of Monday, March 2nd:

JPM – look for more sideways action ahead as the monthly PPO rolls over
BA – could be on the verge of a major move; needs to clear 250-275
FFIV – long-term trend is higher, now back above its rising 20-month EMA
MA – 525 price support holding, solid entry point with weekly RSI at 44
GS – likely needs a rest after a massive 2-year run; 20-month EMA near 700
FDX – this one looks great, just breaking above double top at 300
AAPL – steady climber, consolidating 2025 rise; 20-month EMA is support
CHRW – overbought after massive 9-10 month run higher
JBHT – a leader in the red-hot transportation area; monthly PPO strengthens
STX - monthly RSI at 92+, so clearly overbought; what a massive rise
HSY - waited patiently for a breakout above 200, now rolling
DIS - 125 is the number; clear that and DIS could be off to the races
MSCI - lots of consolidation, needs to break above 650
SBUX - working on its 5th year of consolidation, needs a breakout
KRE – ran to all-time high before pulling back recently
ED – breaking out as it heads into the seasonally-favorable month of March
AJG - steady performer for 15 years; might have found support with bounce
NSC – like JBHT, rallying and breaking out on heels of transports strength
RHI – January rally gave way to big February selling; expect a dividend cut
ADM – rallying back over past year with monthly PPO now above zero line
BG – breakout after 4 years of consolidation a very bullish signal
CVS – holding 70 support remains key, continues to improve
HRL - short-term rally is nice, but key will be clearing 27.50
DE – latest earnings report sent stock to new all-time high; excellent chart
LULU - needs a catalyst to end its 2+ year slide; looking for 150 to hold
TTD - free falling within one of worst industries - software; 15-20 is support
META - remains in range from 600-800; may consolidate further
ADBE - broke down below 2022 low, reports earnings in two weeks
KMB - added recently as its monthly RSI at 40 could present an opportunity

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: PDD ($136 billion), PAYX ($33 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: CCL ($31 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: January construction spending (delayed)
Tuesday: Q4 productivity
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: March consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Mar 23: +32.57% (Ex: cumulative gains = +6.82% over 53 trading days since 1950. +6.82% x 253/53 = +32.57%)
Mar 24: +25.26%
Mar 25: +16.19%
Mar 26: +75.48%
Mar 27: -38.97%
Mar 28: -13.74%
Mar 29: +51.39%
Mar 30: -39.66%
Mar 31: -4.21%
Apr 1: +68.04%
Apr 2: +20.09%
Apr 3: -23.94%
Apr 4: -47.28%
Apr 5: +68.25%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Mar 23: +38.54%
Mar 24: +22.41%
Mar 25: +16.28%
Mar 26: +107.10%
Mar 27: -105.25%
Mar 28: -77.74%
Mar 29: +53.31%
Mar 30: -12.85%
Mar 31: +37.85%
Apr 1: +87.35%
Apr 2: +24.04%
Apr 3: -123.94%
Apr 4: -106.39%
Apr 5: +112.55%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Mar 23: +13.92%
Mar 24: +28.23%
Mar 25: +101.42%
Mar 26: +180.20%
Mar 27: -72.21%
Mar 28: -66.72%
Mar 29: +64.48%
Mar 30: +26.93%
Mar 31: +75.91%
Apr 1: +26.79%
Apr 2: +17.29%
Apr 3: -108.91%
Apr 4: -72.50%
Apr 5: +101.16%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Obviously, the war is what everyone is talking about. Technically, however, the S&P 500 broke down below key support at 6538. Given the good news this morning that I discussed earlier, on a short-term basis, I'll be watching this S&P 500 chart for clues of the market's next move:

The first resistance at 6538 will likely be cleared at the opening bell. Next comes the combination of the declining 20-day EMA, currently at 6735 and that prior support-turned-resistance level at 6797.

I'm now viewing the trading range to be Friday's close of 6506 as support and the 20-day EMA of 6735 as resistance.

Here are a few things that I'll be watching this week:

The War in Iran and Crude Oil. Crude oil prices ($WTIC) fell considerably this morning after President Trump's announcement, but I wouldn't be lulled into believing this conflict is over. The Middle East has always been an extremely volatile area of the world, so great news can be followed by horrible news the next day. I'd stay focused on the charts and key levels of price support and resistance. In other words, respect the downtrend for now.

Sentiment. There are two recent bullish developments here. First, we saw the S&P 500 break down last week, with a lower VIX reading. In other words, market makers are "projecting" less volatility ahead, despite a price break down. That is sending at least a short-term message that fear is lessening. Also, as I discussed above the 5-day SMA of the CPCE shot higher to close at .78 last week, the highest level of fear in the options market that we've seen in many, many months. The long-term picture remains cloudy at best, but these are two signals that would support a short-term pop. Maybe we move up to test that 20-day EMA?

Earnings. It's still a bit early, but the stock market has a long history of rising into the start of earnings season. That strength usually comes in the few weeks leading up to the first earnings reports, which are scheduled to be released on April 14th, when JP Morgan (JPM) leads a list of money center banks to the earnings podium.

Interest Rates and Inflation. There won't be any inflation data out this week, but how traders view bonds will continue to provide us a signal. Last week, we saw the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) break above 4.30% for the first time since August. I don't believe it's because our economy is overheating. Instead, it's likely a move out of treasuries as traders await likely higher inflation data ahead.

Happy trading!
Tom