EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, April 6, 2026

Tom Bowley - April 06, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, April 3rd. We've also updated the April Seasonality ChartList and the ChartList for the MarketVision 2026 Q2 Update. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. We have discontinued the Upcoming Earnings ChartLists until the new earnings season starts next week.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The long-term bullish picture is not affected by all the short-term challenges that the market faces right now. The secular bull market remains perfectly intact.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

I do find the intraday rotation between the QQQ and SPY to be relatively bullish. The week before last, we saw a big drop in this intraday ratio. But last week, it recovered again, continuing to hold onto its February relative low. The bottom panel shows that if we include gaps, the ratio is close to breaking down. However, the intraday ratio is well above its early-February relative low - a positive development, in my opinion.

IWM:QQQ

A little more than a week ago, the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) lost 245 price support, falling to the 240 level. On Thursday, however, the IWM rallied strongly from a weak open, closing back above its 20-day EMA and it's holding that key moving average today thus far. There is a slight positive divergence on the daily chart, if you pull up a chart that shows the PPO.

Meanwhile, if we ignore gaps, the IWM is trending higher vs. the QQQ, continuing to set new relative highs. Money appears to be rotating into small caps, an endorsement of further interest rate cuts down the road.

XLY:XLP

Just as quickly as we see poor rotation, it's followed up with bullish rotation. It's a signal to me that we don't have a lot further to drop.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

We can clearly see that sentiment is resetting. The lowest 5-day SMA of the CPCE has been .58 since early February. We were routinely below that level during Q4 2025 and into Q1 2026 as the S&P 500 kept challenging all-time highs.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. The near-term forecast is quite cloudy, given the now-rising 253-day SMA of the CPCE. There is good news, however, as we're moving closer to a higher level, where more significant stock market rallies can begin.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks look now:

JPM – as suggested last month, JPM has been moving mostly sideways
BA – unable to clear 250-275 resistance, holding stock back for now
FFIV – regaining strength above its 20-month EMA
MA – trending slightly lower, should find support from 450-460
GS – very extended, profit taking in 2026 likely selling culprit
FDX – nice looking chart, in a long-term bull flag pattern (bullish)
AAPL – very healthy long-term chart, simply consolidating in 2026
CHRW – pulling back from overbought conditions
JBHT – broke out in February, support around 200
STX - setting new all-time high after 2-month consolidation
HSY - bouncing off 200 price support
DIS - very weak on both absolute and relative basis, support 75-80
MSCI - 4+ years of consolidation continues after prior rapid ascent
SBUX - still consolidating between 65-115, needs a breakout
KRE – chart still looks very strong long-term, I see more highs ahead
ED – continuing to set new all-time highs, rising 20-month EMA is support
AJG - February 2026 low of 194 is now support to watch in this downtrend
NSC – cup with handle breakout in mid-2025 still catalyst for higher prices
RHI – 22 is the new support in this downtrend, which has been brutal
ADM – bullish momentum has clearly taken over in 2026
BG – setting new highs each month since breaking out in January
CVS – pulling back to test moving averages and 70 price support
HRL - approaching Q4 2025 low again; nice entry for this dividend aristocrat
DE – pullback after early-2026 breakout completely fine, support 525-550
LULU - has bounced off recent low, but still searching for ultimate bottom
TTD - volume remains very heavy on net selling; will 21 low hold?
META - lost 600 support, now moving up to try to regain that level
ADBE - remains under pressure, like many software stocks
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, with solid price support at 95

I thought Oracle Corp (ORCL) was a hot mess last summer when management said they were expecting $140 billion in AI revenue by year 2030. The stock promptly gapped up and traded above 340 in the second week of September. I couldn't have disliked it more. Since then, ORCL has traded down to its current price in the mid-140s. Its valuation is much more reasonable now, and its quarterly dividend has been rising at a very strong pace, making ORCL much more attractive for long-term investors now. Its yield of 1.39% might not seem like much, but when your dividend is up nearly ten-fold in 13 years and it's rising 20-25% a year, it's easy to like the stock, especially with its price now back at its rising 50-month SMA:

The black-dotted vertical lines highlight key ORCL lows when its monthly RSI hit lows at 40 or just below. ORCL's current monthly RSI is 45. Maybe it goes a little lower, but that only makes the stock more attractive, not less. We're adding it to our Long-Term Portfolio list above.
Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: DAL ($44 billion), STZ ($26 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: March ISM services
Tuesday: February durable goods
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, February personal income & spending, February PCE, Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), February wholesale inventories
Friday: March CPI, February factory orders, April consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Apr 6: +45.38% (Ex: cumulative gains =+9.33% over 52 trading days since 1950. +9.33% x 253/52 = +45.38%)
Apr 7: -48.79%
Apr 8: +53.63%
Apr 9: +109.22%
Apr 10: +29.62%
Apr 11: -20.05%
Apr 12: +63.88%
Apr 13: -21.35%
Apr 14: +2.23%
Apr 15: +34.90%
Apr 16: +48.51%
Apr 17: +84.67%
Apr 18: +38.75
Apr 19: -27.13%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Apr 6: +26.71%
Apr 7: -36.56%
Apr 8: +29.16%
Apr 9: +146.83%
Apr 10: +16.14%
Apr 11: -36.79%
Apr 12: +33.04%
Apr 13: -0.08%
Apr 14: -57.21%
Apr 15: +7.79
Apr 16: +69.97%
Apr 17: +84.46%
Apr 18: +114.19%
Apr 19: -37.48%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Apr 6: +51.29%
Apr 7: -87.02%
Apr 8: +57.42%
Apr 9: +131.26%
Apr 10: +4.99%
Apr 11: -77.78%
Apr 12: +45.00%
Apr 13: -37.09%
Apr 14: -76.39%
Apr 15: -46.94%
Apr 16: +111.13%
Apr 17: +81.06%
Apr 18: +96.02%
Apr 19: +3.47%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Stocks received perhaps their best news of the week last week when the market was closed on Friday. March nonfarm payrolls bounced back strongly, posting a 178,000 jump, more than erasing February's downwardly-revised 133,000 drop in jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. While this can be viewed as a near-term issue as it clouds the picture for those thinking that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate anytime soon, I view it bullishly for the long-term. At a minimum, it delays the idea of a recession in 2026. It could erase that thought altogether.

Here are a few things that I'll be watching this week:

The War in Iran and Crude Oil. The War of Words continues between the U.S. and Iran, so it's difficult to predict how this is going to turn out and when it might end. Crude oil ($WTIC), as of noon ET today, is mostly unchanged, as market participants try to figure out what's rhetoric and what's real in the threats between the two countries. Either way, higher crude oil prices are not good for anyone globally as the higher gas prices hit consumers.

Inflation. We'll get the latest CPI report on Friday morning. Headline CPI is expected to soar from February's level of +0.3% to an oil-driven leap to +1.0% for March. March Core CPI, however, is expected to rise much more modestly to +0.3% from February's +0.2% level. This latter number is the one to watch, not the headline. The fear mongers will be printing that headline number, trust me. But Wall Street will only care about the Core CPI number. A +0.4% print could spook the market.

Technical Outlook. We're still downtrending, so that must be respected. But we're also rising to test key 20-day EMAs across our major indices. The small cap IWM is doing a better job of clearing this moving average, but the DIA, SPY, and QQQ all are sitting just above or below it. A failure and accelerated selling would be short-term bearish, while a breakout above it would be short-term bullish.

Earnings. We're just one week away from JP Morgan (JPM) kicking off Q1 earnings season. Jamie Dimon, the JPM CEO, was doing his usual "the sky is falling" mantra over the weekend. These Wall Street firms use the media to scare individual stock traders out of their positions and no one is better at it than Jamie Dimon. You'd think the S&P 500 was at 100, given all of his warnings over the years. He's the anti-Warren Buffett.

Happy trading!
Tom