EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, April 13, 2026

Tom Bowley - April 13, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, April 10th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. Earnings season is kicking off today with Goldman Sachs (GS), before the big banks, including JP Morgan (JPM), begin reporting on Tuesday morning. Accordingly, we've updated our Upcoming Earnings and Upcoming Earnings - Relative Strength ChartLists.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

This chart didn't change at all during the 10%+ correction and it hasn't changed with the subsequent rally. That remains the beauty of taking a step back and viewing the S&P 500 through a Big Picture lens.

Long-term investors, stay the course. Short-term traders beware the potentially volatile action ahead.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

This ratio, on both an intraday and closing basis, has bounced considerably from February lows. This is one indication that the worst of the selling is likely behind us. That doesn't mean we won't see more whipsaw action, but the March low may very well end up being the 2026 low.

IWM:QQQ

The IWM remains quite healthy on a relative basis vs. the QQQ as the IWM:QQQ intraday chart continues to trend higher. In my opinion, Wall Street remains somewhat enamored with small caps ahead of what likely will be additional rate cuts later in 2026 and/or into 2027.

XLY:XLP

Last week wasn't a great one in terms of intraday rotation from the XLP to the XLY. However, we do remain well off the low that was set in February and that is a bullish development.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

In the short-term, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE is nearing its lowest level since early February. I would not expect that we've seen enough market weakness and whipsaw action to completely "reset" sentiment. This would be one signal that still favors further consolidation, and possibly selling, ahead.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. Thus far, the selloff and then subsequent rally is consistent with behavior in other market cycles where the CPCE is resetting to higher levels. It is not unusual at all to see action in both directions. Given how money is rotating in the QQQ:SPY and XLY:XLP charts above, I'd say there's a fairly strong likelihood that the March low probably represents our 2026 low. It's certainly not a guarantee, but quite likely.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks look as of Friday, April 3rd:

JPM – as suggested last month, JPM has been moving mostly sideways
BA – unable to clear 250-275 resistance, holding stock back for now
FFIV – regaining strength above its 20-month EMA
MA – trending slightly lower, should find support from 450-460
GS – very extended, profit taking in 2026 likely selling culprit
FDX – nice looking chart, in a long-term bull flag pattern (bullish)
AAPL – very healthy long-term chart, simply consolidating in 2026
CHRW – pulling back from overbought conditions
JBHT – broke out in February, support around 200
STX - setting new all-time high after 2-month consolidation
HSY - bouncing off 200 price support
DIS - very weak on both absolute and relative basis, support 75-80
MSCI - 4+ years of consolidation continues after prior rapid ascent
SBUX - still consolidating between 65-115, needs a breakout
KRE – chart still looks very strong long-term, I see more highs ahead
ED – continuing to set new all-time highs, rising 20-month EMA is support
AJG - February 2026 low of 194 is now support to watch in this downtrend
NSC – cup with handle breakout in mid-2025 still catalyst for higher prices
RHI – 22 is the new support in this downtrend, which has been brutal
ADM – bullish momentum has clearly taken over in 2026
BG – setting new highs each month since breaking out in January
CVS – pulling back to test moving averages and 70 price support
HRL - approaching Q4 2025 low again; nice entry for this dividend aristocrat
DE – pullback after early-2026 breakout completely fine, support 525-550
LULU - has bounced off recent low, but still searching for ultimate bottom
TTD - volume remains very heavy on net selling; will 21 low hold?
META - lost 600 support, now moving up to try to regain that level
ADBE - remains under pressure, like many software stocks
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, with solid price support at 95
ORCL - added last week as its combination of potential growth and rapidly-growing dividend was too much to pass up

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: GS ($267 billion), FAST ($56 billion)
Tuesday: JPM ($832 billion), JNJ ($581 billion), WFC ($265 billion), C ($214 billion), BLK ($156 billion)
Wednesday: ASML ($570 billion), BAC ($377 billion), MS ($282 billion), PGR ($117 billion)
Thursday: TSM ($1.89 trillion), NFLX ($431 billion), PEP ($215 billion), SCHW ($169 billion)
Friday: TFC ($63 billion), FITB ($45 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: March existing home sales
Tuesday: March PPI
Wednesday: April empire state manufacturing survey, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, March industrial production & capacity utilization
Friday: None

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Apr 13: -21.35% (Ex: cumulative gains = +9.33% over 52 trading days since 1950. +9.33% x 253/52 = +45.38%)
Apr 14: +2.23%
Apr 15: +34.90%
Apr 16: +48.51%
Apr 17: +84.67%
Apr 18: +38.75%
Apr 19: -27.13%
Apr 20: -31.69%
Apr 21: +25.20%
Apr 22: +12.70%
Apr 23: +1.75%
Apr 24: -9.57%
Apr 25: +23.81%
Apr 26: +15.46%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Apr 13: -0.08%
Apr 14: -57.21%
Apr 15: +7.79%
Apr 16: +69.97%
Apr 17: +84.46%
Apr 18: +114.19%
Apr 19: -37.48%
Apr 20: -48.16%
Apr 21: +42.03%
Apr 22: +79.65%
Apr 23: +7.68%
Apr 24: -13.37%
Apr 25: +48.72%
Apr 26: -1.07%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Apr 13: -37.09%
Apr 14: -76.39%
Apr 15: -46.94%
Apr 16: +111.13%
Apr 17: +81.06%
Apr 18: +96.02%
Apr 19: +3.47%
Apr 20: -104.74%
Apr 21: +98.58%
Apr 22: +19.72%
Apr 23: +45.02%
Apr 24: +20.36%
Apr 25: +60.88%
Apr 26: +3.38%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It's really important to try to remain objective when analyzing U.S. equities. You might have preconceived biases that make you feel like the market MUST go down, but if the market rotation doesn't support that thesis, you have to let it go. I did not like (1) the market rotation late last year, (2) the rising Volatility Index ($VIX) while the S&P 500 was setting new all-time highs, (3) the complacency among retail options traders, (4) the S&P 500 reaching the top of its channel, among other things, and (5) ultimately the break of price support on the S&P 500 below 6797. As a result, our MarketVision 2026 in early January had a very cautious tone.

This is how I see each of these five things right now:

Market Rotation. It's improved. The XLY:XLP ratio and the QQQ:SPY ratio bottomed in February. While the S&P 500 hit lows in March, these ratios remained above February levels, which is encouraging. The IWF:IWD ratio did move to a new low in late March, but that ratio was not nearly as weak as the S&P 500 benchmark index itself. Rotation has improved.

Volatility Index ($VIX). I see a clear break in the VIX uptrend, which is also encouraging. Recently, when the VIX was rising, I kept saying that this suggests that the stock market would not handle bad news well. The war broke out and stocks tumbled. Now we're in a different VIX spot. The VIX is coming down and suggesting that it'll handle bad news much better. Over the weekend, talks of a settlement between the U.S. and Iran broke down. Oil prices surged this morning. And where is the S&P 500 today? Higher. Bad news and the market ignores it. That's different than what we saw in March.

Complacency. This remains, in my view, perhaps the most bearish/cautious signal. The 253-day SMA of the CPCE has risen, but it's nowhere near levels where we've seen major market rallies begin. This signal tells me we could see more choppiness ahead.

Channel. I showed at the beginning of the year how a potential correction might look in terms of the S&P 500 backing off of its test of the upper trendline in the 16-year channel. I felt like we could see a 10% correction, possibly a bit more down to key price support at 6144 on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 fell 9.8% to reach 6313 and our other major indices fell 10% or more. Our signals have done their job. They suggested a difficult market environment ahead and we got it. After a selloff, it's typical for everyone's thoughts to turn to a bear market, but I just don't believe that's going to happen.

Price Support Break. In the second week of March, the S&P 500 lost its key price support at 6797 and we saw accelerated selling as a result. That was a bearish development that clearly started a downtrend with attempts to reach/clear the 20-day SMA and they all ended up as failures....until April. Since the start of this month, we've seen the S&P 500 move back above 6539 price resistance, along with successfully clearing of both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA. While I don't believe that guarantees that we're just going to sprint to new all-time highs, I do believe that is has most likely established a very important 2026 low just above 6300. I would be all in if the S&P 500 moves back down to test this key level.

In concluding, let me just say that challenging, whipsaw markets are very, very frustrating. I get it. I can see that market environment coming, but I can't change it. We have to deal with it the best we can. Ultimately, and this is very important, I see U.S. stocks moving higher. I still believe there's likely to be more frustration ahead, but by the time Q4 rolls around, I believe our major indices will be looking for higher prices and all-time highs.

One last thing and this is more short-term in nature. The SPY, QQQ, and IWM all show negative divergences on their 60-minute charts. This could produce a bit of selling later today or possibly later this week.

Happy trading!

Tom