EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, April 20, 2026

Tom Bowley - April 20, 2026

Vacation Week

I will be traveling out of town this week for my golf vacation. My schedule will be a bit lighter. I did a Weekly Market Recap video over the weekend, but there may be no video next weekend as I'll be traveling home on Sunday and I doubt I'll have time. Depending on my internet connectivity on vacation, there may or may not be a Tuesday Trading Places Live on YouTube. The Wednesday Live Trading Room is cancelled. In addition to today's Weekly Market Report, I'll likely send out a Daily Market Report on Wednesday morning and John Hopkins will provide his customary Friday Daily Market Report, as scheduled.

The EB Digest newsletter articles should be out as usual.

ChartLists will not be updated this week. The next scheduled ChartList update will be the following weekend of Friday, May 1st.

Rest assured that I will be watching the market action throughout the week and will be in touch regularly with John. We'll pass along any major developments that we see.

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, April 17th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. Earnings season has kicked off and the number of quarterly reports will accelerate over the next few weeks. Accordingly, we've updated our Upcoming Earnings and Upcoming Earnings - Relative Strength ChartLists.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

In the bottom panel, the peak of these 240-month rate of changes (ROCs) typically occurs 20 years from the prior secular bear market low. Therefore, I'd expect the peak of the current 240-month ROC to be somewhere around March 2029, then we'll drift lower into the first few years of the 2030s.

Heading into 2026, I believed it would be a challenging year, but I didn't believe the selling would be deep (cyclical bear market). A higher-volatility ($VIX) environment can move back and forth quickly and frustrate both bulls and bears. That's what we've experienced to date, especially during March and the first half of April. We have now moved back into record-high territory and we've done so with major rotation back into growth stocks. That's a bullish development that we should not ignore. Honestly, I expected this sort of bullish behavior later in the year, perhaps in Q4. The quick move back up to the top of our 17-year bull market channel now suggests this year could look more like the 2014-2016 period, where we simply rode the top of the channel for awhile. Here's what it looked like back then and where we currently stand:

The blue circles show almost identical selloffs in 2014 and 2026, followed by very rapid subsequent rallies. In 2014, we then rode the top of the channel for a few more months, before turning lower again. I could see similar-type behavior this year, now that growth stocks have returned to favor. We will have to remain on guard later this year, or possibly during Q1 2027, for more significant selling and a potential return to 6144. That would violate the recent 6313 support print on the S&P 500, which would be very similar to what happened in early 2016. It's WAY too early to make that type of call right now, but perspective keeps open this possibility for us to discuss later this year.

Regardless of how the balance of 2026 and early 2027 turns out, just keep in mind that I remain very bullish the next several years. I don't believe this secular bull market super cycle will end until the 2030s. At that time, stocks will likely lose their luster for a decade. It's too early to worry about that, in my opinion. Enjoy the secular bull market at hand and take advantage of it.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

The continued move higher last week in this ratio is adding more and more evidence that the March low on the S&P 500 is the low of the year.

IWM:QQQ

The QQQ was definitely in favor last week, but the small cap IWM performed "ok". The overall trend here remains strong and suggests that small caps should be part of a balanced investment strategy throughout 2026 and into 2027.

XLY:XLP

Moving to a 2 1/2 month high in the intraday XLY vs. XLP ratio is a good look for the bulls as the S&P 500 breaks out to a fresh all-time high. It's full speed ahead right now for the bulls.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

In the short-term, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE tells us that the option bulls have returned in full force as this number has fallen all the way back down to .47, an extremely low reading that can result in a 1-3% market drop at any time. That potential weakness would be welcome, as far as I'm concerned, and would set up an opportunity to re-enter the market with any cash on the sidelines.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. We've seen a very low recent reading on this 253-day SMA, prior to the 2026 bounce. It wouldn't be unprecedented to see it move lower one more time and even move below the recent low. However, if it did, we'd simply be "kicking the can down the road", in terms of a larger market drop in order to reset this sentiment reading.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of Friday, April 3rd:

JPM – as suggested last month, JPM has been moving mostly sideways
BA – unable to clear 250-275 resistance, holding stock back for now
FFIV – regaining strength above its 20-month EMA
MA – trending slightly lower, should find support from 450-460
GS – very extended, profit taking in 2026 likely selling culprit
FDX – nice looking chart, in a long-term bull flag pattern (bullish)
AAPL – very healthy long-term chart, simply consolidating in 2026
CHRW – pulling back from overbought conditions
JBHT – broke out in February, support around 200
STX - setting new all-time high after 2-month consolidation
HSY - bouncing off 200 price support
DIS - very weak on both absolute and relative basis, support 75-80
MSCI - 4+ years of consolidation continues after prior rapid ascent
SBUX - still consolidating between 65-115, needs a breakout
KRE – chart still looks very strong long-term, I see more highs ahead
ED – continuing to set new all-time highs, rising 20-month EMA is support
AJG - February 2026 low of 194 is now support to watch in this downtrend
NSC – cup with handle breakout in mid-2025 still catalyst for higher prices
RHI – 22 is the new support in this downtrend, which has been brutal
ADM – bullish momentum has clearly taken over in 2026
BG – setting new highs each month since breaking out in January
CVS – pulling back to test moving averages and 70 price support
HRL - approaching Q4 2025 low again; nice entry for this dividend aristocrat
DE – pullback after early-2026 breakout completely fine, support 525-550
LULU - has bounced off recent low, but still searching for ultimate bottom
TTD - volume remains very heavy on net selling; will 21 low hold?
META - lost 600 support, now moving up to try to regain that level
ADBE - remains under pressure, like many software stocks
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, with solid price support at 95
ORCL - added last week as its combination of potential growth and rapidly-growing dividend was too much to pass up

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: STLD ($28 billion)
Tuesday: GE ($313 billion), UNH ($287 billion), RTX ($264 billion), ISRG ($163 billion), IBKR ($135 billion)
Wednesday: TSLA ($1.46 trillion), LRCX ($326 billion), GEV ($263 billion), IBM ($235 billion), TXN ($203 billion)
Thursday: INTC ($342 billion), AXP ($223 billion), SAP ($218 billion), TMO ($192 billion)
Friday: PG ($333 billion), SLB ($78 billion), NSC ($74 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: March retail sales, February business inventories, March pending home sales
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: April consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Apr 20: -31.69% (Ex: cumulative gains = -6.26% over 50 trading days since 1950. -6.26% x 253/50 = -31.69%)
Apr 21: +25.20%
Apr 22: +12.70%
Apr 23: +1.75%
Apr 24: -9.57%
Apr 25: +23.81%
Apr 26: +15.46%
Apr 27: -0.94%
Apr 28: +2.78%
Apr 29: +41.66%
Apr 30: -16.95%
May 1: +49.11%
May 2: +49.86%
May 3: +22.44%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Apr 20: -48.16%
Apr 21: +42.03%
Apr 22: +79.65%
Apr 23: +7.68%
Apr 24: -13.37%
Apr 25: +48.72%
Apr 26: -1.07%
Apr 27: +15.06%
Apr 28: +10.71%
Apr 29: +50.97%
Apr 30: -23.15%
May 1: +75.07%
May 2: +72.38%
May 3: -15.32%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Apr 20: -104.74%
Apr 21: +98.58%
Apr 22: +19.72%
Apr 23: +45.02%
Apr 24: +20.36%
Apr 25: +60.88%
Apr 26: +3.38%
Apr 27: +10.14%
Apr 28: +43.94%
Apr 29: +99.05
Apr 30: -110.78%
May 1: +24.12%
May 2: +81.27%
May 3: +25.97%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday, extending its current daily winning streak to 13 days, which is the most since 1992. This does not happen during bear markets, so I would put thoughts of a bear market ahead completely out of your thoughts. Moving back to all-time highs is, instead, an extension of the current secular bull market. While I had a cautious tone throughout Q1, I do not have those same cautious thoughts now. The rising 20-day EMA is now our friend. Tests of it, either on our major indices or on leading stocks, represent opportunities.

Here's what I'm thinking about in the week ahead:

Earnings. Earnings are now underway and banks, thus far, have reported earnings that have grown, on average, over 19%, which exceeds the consensus estimate of 15%. I expect earnings season to be strong. Stocks are driven higher, over time, by two things: earnings and interest rates. Both are favorable currently.

Market Rotation. It strengthened further this past week. Money is rotating heavily towards growth areas and that bodes well for U.S. equities. It's also where I will be considering most of my trades in the weeks ahead.

Technical Price Action. Given the new all-time highs and current uptrend, the 20-day EMA is key support if psychological and price support is lost at 7000.

Complacency. This is the market's biggest issue now. The CPCE's 5-day SMA has fallen significantly back to .47, which is a level where short-term tops have formed in the past. It's the week after monthly options expiration and that can also be challenging in the near-term. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been relatively flat over the next week or so, suggesting history is mostly neutral as we look ahead.

Happy trading!
Tom