EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 1, 2026

Tom Bowley - June 01, 2026

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ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated either late yesterday or earlier this morning and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Seasonality - June 2026 (SEASCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, May 29th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I wondered last week if we could close above 7501 after establishing that closing high on May 14th. Well, the options-related pullback didn't last long, and the holiday-shortened week last week took almost no time to find another all-time high on Tuesday morning. We have now closed at record highs on the S&P 500 on each of the last four days. Futures are pointing to more records as we open up this week.

Betting against a secular bull market advance is akin to laying down on a railroad track. You're going to get run over. Have our major indices surged higher than I thought they would by this time in 2026? Absolutely. Would I bet against a further advance? No way.

Our default should always be to be long during secular bull market advances. The signs to get out have to pile up and be overwhelming. I'm not seeing enough of those signs to be bearish, or even cautious.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

This ratio is in "straight-up" mode, which is an indication that market participants are totally in a risk on type of market environment. It's this type of market environment that leads to higher highs and further rotation into aggressive growth stocks.

IWM:QQQ

As I've mentioned recently, the IWM has not been the place to be on a relative performance basis. Small caps have been moving higher and, in fact, set a new all-time record last week, but their relative underperformance continues. Until Wall Street believes the Fed is back in a rate-cutting mood, the relative upside in small caps is likely limited.

XLY:XLP

I have felt that this ratio would turn back higher and support the all-time highs being set across our major indices week after week. All of the other sustainability ratios were much more bullish. Well, we've now seen a very solid rebound in this XLY:XLP ratio and we could even see a breakout this week. The turn back to the upside is very bullish.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

There was an individual daily print of the CPCE at .39 last week and the 5-day SMA tumbled to a fresh new low. I'm beginning to suspect that we'll see a lot of healthy, bullish rotation, but not a lot more upside from the S&P 500. I'm not betting against it, just saying that sentiment signs are pointing to at least a pause in the current uptrend.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

This moving average has turned back to the downside and is quite choppy - from a long-term perspective. We're not simply going up or going down. Instead, we're going back and forth. If we can clear the low set in Q4 2025, it would add to the current bullishness.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below I'm providing my latest update for all stocks - from a long-term (monthly charts) perspective - as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a yr
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: HPE ($51 billion), CRDO ($41 billion)
Tuesday: PANW ($210 billion)
Wednesday: AVGO ($2.02 trillion), CRWD ($170 billion), MDT ($97 billion)
Thursday: CIEN ($81 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: May ISM manufacturing, April construction spending
Tuesday: April JOLTS
Wednesday: May ADP employment report, April factory orders, May ISM services, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q1 productivity
Friday: May nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & hourly wages

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 1: +54.02% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+11.10% over 52 trading days since 1950. +11.10% x 253/52 = +54.02%)
Jun 2: +38.16%
Jun 3: +6.79%
Jun 4: -0.99%
Jun 5: +44.59%
Jun 6: +59.15%
Jun 7: +3.37%
Jun 8: -18.56%
Jun 9: -62.24%
Jun 10: +12.68%
Jun 11: -17.37%
Jun 12: +12.05%
Jun 13: +6.39%
Jun 14: -12.52%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 1: +73.91%
Jun 2: +132.50%
Jun 3: -59.13%
Jun 4: +80.53%
Jun 5: +99.55%
Jun 6: -5.16%
Jun 7: +17.61%
Jun 8: -18.14%
Jun 9: -46.06%
Jun 10: -0.57%
Jun 11: -66.85%
Jun 12: +7.94%
Jun 13: -7.85%
Jun 14: -22.67%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 1: +113.13%
Jun 2: +173.13%
Jun 3: -44.86%
Jun 4: +38.36%
Jun 5: +85.52%
Jun 6: -4.31%
Jun 7: +32.75%
Jun 8: +1.50%
Jun 9: -60.71%
Jun 10: -50.39%
Jun 11: -153.91%
Jun 12: -17.62%
Jun 13: -28.83%
Jun 14: -40.88%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It's jobs week. The expectation is that we'll see a positive 90,000 number, which would continue to be a goldilocks scenario for U.S. equities. We want a number that's not too hot and not too cold. The key to watch on the charts, however, is how growth stocks react to the report. I believe that's more important than the report itself.

Here's what I'll be watching this week:

Software. I've been talking up this group for weeks now. There have been positive technical signs coming off the March low. The daily chart shows a group that's been trending above its rising 20-day EMA for the past several weeks. There are always two sides to every story, however, so we have to understand what could derail the group. For me, it's easy. Check out this weekly chart and potential right shoulder forming:

I believe this is the "line in the sand" for the bears. They do not want to see software clear its 50-week SMA. In the meantime, the bulls know what comes next if the neckline support fails.

Semiconductors. This is the largest industry group in the S&P 500 and 2nd place isn't particularly close. Therefore, whatever happens to this group matters. We've had a massive run in semiconductors, so one of my biggest questions is....what happens to the S&P 500 when semis do inevitably consolidate, or even (gasp!), selloff? Does money leave the market with a more significant selloff in the S&P 500? Or does money rotate to other areas like software to mitigate the technical damage on our major indices? I believe it'll be the latter.

Other Industries. Computer hardware ($DJUSCR) and renewable energy ($DWCREE) are showing signs of significant strength, in addition to software. These are areas that could benefit substantially if we see rotation away from semis for a period of time.

Seasonality. The S&P 500, along with the other major indices, does have a tendency to struggle a bit once the first week of June ends. As I mentioned earlier, I don't like to bet against secular bull market advances. But seeing a pause of period of consolidation cannot be ruled out, especially during the slower summer months.

Jobs. I look at nonfarm payrolls as the economy's "report card". This report is a key driver in the direction of interest rates. And interest rates and earnings are what drive the stock market over time. I believe a jobs number between 0 and 150,000 would be viewed positively by Wall Street.

Happy trading!

Tom