EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 15, 2026

Tom Bowley - June 15, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated Friday and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, June 12th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week, I felt like the way the market finished, we'd likely see some more selling, which we did. Many large cap growth names struggled the first half of last week, while regaining much of their losses by Friday's close. In the end, it was nothing more than consolidation for our larger cap indices.

The ETFs that track the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) and mid cap S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (MDY) both set new all-time highs last week. So while our larger indices were moving back and forth, while consolidating recent gains, the smaller and mid-size stocks were breaking out.

Bullish rotation is a hallmark of secular bull markets. When the leaders sell off and the major indices pull back, money doesn't leave the stock market entirely. Instead, it rotates. Eventually that money comes back into the large cap leaders and our major indices set news highs. I believe we'll see that again, it's likely just a matter of whether it's quickly or if we'll have to wait for perhaps a Q2 pre-earnings move.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

I thought this ratio bounced back pretty nicely when the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 rebounded on Thursday and Friday. That's what I look for - how the market trades during a rebound, not how it trades during a selloff. Typically, the high-growth areas that led the initial move higher, will retreat during selloffs. The bigger question is, "does that money rotate back into high growth areas during a rebound". The answer last week was a resounding YES. That's bullish action.

IWM:QQQ

I suspected last week that consolidation among many large cap names could make the small cap IWM a beneficiary. That's generally what we saw as the IWM gained 4%, while the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) and S&P 500 ($SPX) gained 2.34% and 0.65%, respectively.

XLY:XLP

The XLY:XLP ratio isn't bearish, but it's definitely not overly bullish, by any means. I watch this ratio very closely and I'd feel even more bullish about the market if this ratio was climbing more steadily. It's still well off its low, but hasn't broken out with the S&P 500 for the past two months.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

One indicator that nailed the selling recently was the 5-day CPCE. I mentioned last week that this indicator suggested the S&P 500 wasn't likely to go much higher and.....voila! History tells us to be short-term cautious any time this 5-day SMA dips down below .50. At the low last week, this 5-day SMA hit 0.42, its lowest level since several readings below .40 in 2021. That extreme complacency can't predict with precision a big selloff, but it does warn us of a potential selloff at any moment.

Given the selling and consolidation, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE moved out of danger territory and is now more neutral, providing no real short-term directional clues.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The fact that this long-term 253-day SMA has rolled back over and is now moving lower is bullish. If it breaks to a new low, clearing the Q4 2025 low, it would only add more confidence to the secular bull market scenario moving forward.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each chart as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a year
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years

We're adding a classic growth & income stock to our Long-Term Trade Setups - McCormick & Company (MKC). The recent price drop in MKC from nearly 72 to a recent low beneath 46 set up its dividend yield at close to 4%, a super yield for a stock that has raised its dividend by 10% per year over the past decade. MKC has also raised its dividend for each of the past 40 years. The combination of the potential of future price appreciation, along with rising dividends, makes MKC a very solid investment opportunity at this level. According to stats at StockCharts.com, MKC's payout ratio (dividends divided by EPS) is only 30.49%, a very low level, indicative of a very safe dividend as well.

Currently, MKC's monthly RSI is at 35, near its lowest reading EVER. For long-term investors, I like entry in MKC here, with potential long-term price support from 37-46:

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: JBL ($40 billion)
Thursday: ACN ($111 billion), KR ($39 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: June empire state manufacturing survey, May industrial production & capacity utilization
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, May housing starts & building permits
Wednesday: May retail sales, May pending home sales, April business inventories, FOMC interest rate decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, May leading indicators
Friday: None - Juneteenth federal holiday, market closed

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 15: +18.27% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+3.90% over 54 trading days since 1950. +3.90% x 253/54 = +18.27%)
Jun 16: +27.89%
Jun 17: +14.10%
Jun 18: -22.20%
Jun 19: -13.89%
Jun 20: -23.59%
Jun 21: +13.57%
Jun 22: -25.23%
Jun 23: -4.16%
Jun 24: -35.49%
Jun 25: -14.47%
Jun 26: -69.28%
Jun 27: +2.62%
Jun 28: +41.58%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 15: +45.66%
Jun 16: +63.63%
Jun 17: +22.65%
Jun 18: -53.04%
Jun 19: +31.68%
Jun 20: -48.87%
Jun 21: +16.55%
Jun 22: -33.43%
Jun 23: +19.56%
Jun 24: -26.05%
Jun 25: -9.22%
Jun 26: -32.16%
Jun 27: +1.35%
Jun 28: +81.88%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 15: +84.42%
Jun 16: +9.97%
Jun 17: +19.06%
Jun 18: -33.56%
Jun 19: -8.37%
Jun 20: -67.36%
Jun 21: +30.23%
Jun 22: -75.31%
Jun 23: -7.82%
Jun 24: -117.15%
Jun 25: +15.68%
Jun 26: -10.46%
Jun 27: +44.32%
Jun 28: +122.28%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As long as we see key areas of the market setting new all-time highs, it's difficult to grow overly bearish. We saw quite a bit of selling to open the week last week, but by week's end, both small caps (IWM) and mid caps (MDY) had closed at fresh new all-time highs, while other areas, like semiconductors, consolidated. I'd view this is bullish behavior.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

The Fed. Well, it's Fed week again. It is widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. But, what will new Fed chief Warsh have any surprises for Wall Street? He's indicated that he wants the new Fed to be LESS communicative, which will likely help with all the dissent we've seen recently. After all, if you speak less, there's less opportunity to constantly be changing your view on policy - at least publicly. It's just my personal opinion, so feel free to disagree, but I believe the back and forth, yo-yo, Fed mentality the past several years added to the volatility in the market and contributed mightily to the 4 cyclical bear markets under Powell's watch. That was unprecedented as we've never seen a period of 8 years with 4 cyclical bear markets and 2 corrections. That's what we absorbed under Powell's Fed.

Inflation. Both the May CPI and May PPI were released last week and, while the PPI came in much hotter than expected, the Core CPI actually came in below expectations and that's the key number the Fed watches. I mentioned last week that if inflation did come in below expectations, that the small cap IWM could show renewed relative strength. That's what we saw.

Negative Divergences. They've largely been taken care of on the daily charts of most of our major indices. Momentum remains very strong on weekly charts, so rising 20-week EMAs should provide excellent support going forward. For reference, on the S&P 500, the 20-week EMA currently resides at 7112.11. That's less than 2% below last week's price low of 7237.85. I view the current trading range on the S&P 500 to be 7112-7610. Now that we're in the summer months, it'll be interesting to see if the bulls can keep their foot on the accelerator, or if we simply see a period of consolidation in the range described.

Seasonality. We tend to see a bit of bullishness early next week, based on historical performance, but after that, historical bearishness increases until we begin a typical Q2 pre-earnings run around June 28th.

Happy trading!

Tom