EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 6, 2026

Tom Bowley - July 06, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
July Seasonality (SEASCL)

Matt's Hot Stocks, July Seasonality, and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Thursday, July 2nd. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

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Big Picture

Despite the short-term anxieties, the S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market advance, as is reflected in the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

There's no doubt that questions remain and that this ratio has been fairly volatile. Still, the overall trend remains higher and supports the current secular bull market.

IWM:QQQ

I was a little surprised by the bond market's reaction to the June ADP employment report, released on Wednesday, and the June nonfarm payrolls report, released on Thursday morning. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) jumped higher on both days, though I believe the gap higher will be short lived. With yields moving up, the IWM:QQQ ratio struggled a bit. I don't see a long-term issue, but I do recognize there's some additional "data gathering" required as we move into Q2 earnings season.

XLY:XLP

There was strength in this ratio last week, which is at least encouraging. The ratio has moved mostly lower in 2026, especially since mid April, and that gives me some reason to question the strength. In the end, however, I simply don't see enough corroborating information to support a topping process. I remain "cautiously optimistic" and believe we'll see further all-time highs in Q3 and Q4.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

This is a sentiment signal that I value considerably. We've moved back into neutral territory, even starting to approach overly pessimistic territory (0.75 or above) - great news for the bulls. We're definitely not extended, however, so there could be more short-term downside. We can't rule that out.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

Are we starting to turn back higher? This looks very much like 2019, when this long-term sentiment indicator flashed conflicting signals. If the message isn't clear, then IGNORE it. That's my philosophy.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of late June:

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: PEP ($197 billion)
Friday: DAL ($61 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: May wholesale inventories, FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June existing home sales
Friday: None

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 6: +22.32% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+4.68% over 53 trading days since 1950. +4.68% x 253/53 = +22.32%)
Jul 7: +13.61%
Jul 8: -16.33%
Jul 9: +77.99%
Jul 10: -14.99%
Jul 11: +11.48%
Jul 12: +36.89%
Jul 13: -5.67%
Jul 14: +60.27%
Jul 15: +15.66%
Jul 16: +10.16%
Jul 17: +17.09%
Jul 18: -30.14%
Jul 19: +2.72%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 6: -10.79%
Jul 7: +52.71%
Jul 8: -9.65%
Jul 9: +90.35%
Jul 10: -26.62%
Jul 11: +9.52%
Jul 12: +128.28%
Jul 13: +61.52%
Jul 14: +72.33%
Jul 15: +47.81%
Jul 16: -15.09%
Jul 17: +53.00%
Jul 18: -54.75%
Jul 19: -13.47%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 6: -76.61%
Jul 7: +42.32%
Jul 8: +35.86%
Jul 9: +30.65%
Jul 10: -16.74%
Jul 11: +28.65%
Jul 12: +89.15%
Jul 13: +63.13%
Jul 14: -1.02%
Jul 15: +88.41%
Jul 16: -53.53%
Jul 17: +6.57%
Jul 18: -49.23%
Jul 19: +20.86%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The back and forth action in June was to be somewhat expected. The third month of every calendar quarter tends to be more value-driven and we tend to see profit taking in aggressive growth areas. Still, it's hard not to be disappointed by the weakness in those growth areas as we opened a brand new calendar month. Historically, two of the best three days of the calendar month are the 1st and 2nd. Unfortunately, July 1st and 2nd were anything but bullish days, especially in aggressive areas like semiconductors, where selling accelerated into the holiday weekend.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Pre-Earnings Run Up? We normally see prices rise the 2-3 weeks heading into earnings season. That's been the historical norm for more than seven decades. If last week was any indication, though, we could be in for a lot more disappointment.

Interest Rates. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) moved higher last week, particularly after both jobs reports on Wednesday and Thursday came in lighter than expected. That normally would have the opposite effect. I don't really pay attention to what I believe should happen. Rather, I pay attention to what IS happening. If the TNX continues to climb next week, many of the interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market that have risen considerably in recent weeks, could be in trouble.

Divergences. While many negative divergences still remain on daily charts, the weekly charts are very strong and PPOs are showing little in the way of slowing momentum. I put more weight on the look of the weekly charts, so I'm expecting stock prices to rise, as they typically do, ahead of the start of Q2 earnings season.

Cryptocurrencies. I discussed last week the positive divergence on the bitcoin chart ($BTCUSD). We promptly saw bitcoin jump 5% or so in a week and I believe it could just be the beginning. Keep a close eye on the recent low just beneath 58000. If that holds, a major move could be right around the corner.

Happy trading!

Tom