EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 3, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Short Squeeze (SSCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Upcoming Earnings
• Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
• Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 31st. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

The EB Monthly Seasonality Report - August 2026 was sent out earlier today and I should have the August Seasonality ChartList completed by this evening.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The S&P 500 is up over 1% today (at last check), which takes this benchmark index to within a stone's throw of another all-time high. Clearly, the leadership is no longer coming from semiconductors ($DJUSSC), as it was for many months, but other key areas of the market have picked up, including many of the Mag 7 stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN), in particular, lifted stocks after reporting quarterly results late last week.

The good news is that on our long-term weekly chart, nothing has changed. Everything we've been through since the early-June high has been noise - from a longer-term perspective. Will we make another all-time high breakout? Yes, but will it be this week, next week, next month, or next quarter? In the long-term, does it really matter?

Stay long and strong.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

This ratio remains under pressure, which, in my opinion, would favor more market consolidation ahead. There will be a ton of earnings out this week and next, especially among the influential semiconductor group. I expect most of these earnings to be very strong, so let's see how Wall Street reacts and where the money goes. There is no doubt, however, that this ratio needs to improve to fully support another secular bull market advance.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps are also back on the move today, attempting to clear its 1-month downtrend line. I see this asset class as very healthy and its relative performance chart above would corroborate this.

XLY:XLP

Early last week, this ratio hit its lowest level in over a year, which is never a great signal. Fortunately, relative strength in the XLY began just before AMZN reported its quarterly results, and since then, this ratio has exploded back to the upside. We need to see more relative strength in the XLY to support an all-time high breakout in the S&P 500, should it occur.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) remains a big positive for U.S. stocks. There's a healthy level of skepticism, as evidenced by the recent spike in this 5-day ratio. Since this is a contrarian indicator, this increasing level of skepticism is actually bullish for stocks.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The last 9 months or so has been confusing, at least based on this signal. We've seen this longer-term ratio turn higher, then lower, now higher again. But which way will be sustained? That's the question I'm asking right now and, until that question is answered, I'd consider this signal to be neutral.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd: 

• JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
• BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
• FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
• MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
• GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
• FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
• AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
• CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
• JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
• STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
• HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
• DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
• MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
• SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
• KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
• ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
• AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
• NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
• RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
• ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
• BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
• CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
• HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
• DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
• LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
• TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
• META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
• ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
• KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
• ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
• ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
• MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
• MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
• TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: PLTR ($293 billion), VRTX ($122 billion), MAR ($99 billion)
• Tuesday: SPCX ($1.47 trillion), AMD ($791 billion), CAT ($372 billion), MRK ($321 billion), ANET ($215 billion)
• Wednesday: LLY ($1.09 trillion), SNDK ($190 billion), WDC ($184 billion), DIS ($167 billion), SHOP ($159 billion)
• Thursday: COP ($145 billion), PBR ($123 billion), PH ($121 billion), NET ($100 billion), DDOG ($196 billion)
• Friday: VST ($50 billion), TTWO ($46 billion)

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: July ISM manufacturing, June construction spending
• Tuesday: June factory orders, June JOLTS
• Wednesday: July ADP employment, July PMI services, July ISM services
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 productivity, June wholesale inventories
• Friday: July nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & hourly wages

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Aug 3: +21.48% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +4.50% over 53 trading days since 1950. +4.50% x 253/53 = +21.48%)
• Aug 4: -55.24%
• Aug 5: -47.27%
• Aug 6: +11.65%
• Aug 7: +57.34%
• Aug 8: -3.41%
• Aug 9: -10.48%
• Aug 10: -34.27%
• Aug 11: +41.84%
• Aug 12: +4.91%
• Aug 13: +9.96%
• Aug 14: +1.34%
• Aug 15: +7.60%
• Aug 16: +20.23%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Aug 3: +32.33%
• Aug 4: -71.72%
• Aug 5: -88.71%
• Aug 6: +41.00%
• Aug 7: +68.35%
• Aug 8: -12.50%
• Aug 9: +2.58%
• Aug 10: -55.12%
• Aug 11: +26.38%
• Aug 12: +48.71%
• Aug 13: +29.29%
• Aug 14: +34.42%
• Aug 15: -2.66%
• Aug 16: +33.28%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Aug 3: -31.43%
• Aug 4: -104.87%
• Aug 5: -94.59%
• Aug 6: +1.35%
• Aug 7: +60.00%
• Aug 8: +6.28%
• Aug 9: +12.38%
• Aug 10: -58.63%
• Aug 11: +26.27%
• Aug 12: +15.57%
• Aug 13: -32.17%
• Aug 14: +23.16%
• Aug 15: +14.83%
• Aug 16: +54.99%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It was very interesting that the Volatility Index - CBOE NASDAQ 100 ($VXN) was FALLING, even though the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) was falling. That's unusual behavior, as you can see below:

Whenever I see this with the S&P 500 (going down) and the VIX (going down also), it's a signal that fear is falling, despite the stock market's weakness. Many times, the market weakness doesn't last and prices reverse to the upside. That's what we're seeing with the NASDAQ 100 now.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The Fed met last week and 3 Fed officials voted for a hike. Clearly, the overall committee is turning more hawkish and Fed Chief Warsh has been quite adamant that inflation will NOT be a problem. Personally, I believe the stock market is beginning to expect a rate hike to establish, if nothing else, that this Fed is serious about ending inflationary threats. In the end, that's a great outcome for U.S. equities, which is perhaps why we're seeing less fear (based on the VIX), despite market weakness.

Jobs. We'll get the latest jobs numbers this week, first in the form of the July ADP employment report on Wednesday, then the July nonfarm payrolls on Friday. If jobs remain relatively resilient, I think U.S. stocks will be able to maintain "status quo", even if the fed funds rate is hiked a quarter point at the September meeting.

Semiconductors. The SOXX moved up last week to challenge the declining 20-day EMA, but failed. To the downside, last Wednesday's close set a key price support level. If that level breaks down, it could trigger further de-leveraging in this space. Therefore, I'll watch this level very closely. If that level holds and the SOXX can reclaim its 20-day EMA, the worst could be behind the group. That obviously would be best for our key major indices. Nearly every semiconductor intraday low over the past few weeks has occurred at the open or during the early morning trading hours. That's a sign of a de-leveraging and manipulative market. I'm hopeful that's behind us.

Earnings. There are over 1000 companies reporting this week, many of which reside in the very influential technology sector (XLK). I expect earnings to be strong, but what I'm not so sure about is whether we'll get positive reactions from Wall Street. Many semiconductor, data center, and AI-related stocks were priced for perfection. Will they live up to those lofty expectations? It's hard to say. One stock that I've bought in anticipation of a possible earnings-related run up is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA). It's been an underperformer among semis, but it has a long history of performing exceptionally well during its earnings months - February, May, August, and November. It's off to a great start on its first trading day in August. Earnings will be out on 8/26 AMC (after market close).

Happy trading!

Tom