EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 10, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Upcoming Earnings
• Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists have been updated through Friday, August 7th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Last week was an extremely heavy week for earnings reports. The SECL is completely updated. However, the RGCL was only updated through Monday's guidance. I'll continue updating this ChartList throughout the week, so it would be advisable to download it repeatedly throughout this week to get the latest list. By this weekend, all ChartLists should be fully updated.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week was a big week from a trading perspective, as many of our major indices moved back into all-time high territory. It's always great to see fresh all-time highs in a lengthy secular bull market. But it's hard to even notice anything on the long-term, BIG PICTURE, 100-year chart. It was another ho-hum week within a very long-term uptrend.

That's the beauty of this chart for long-term investors - its simplicity. Could we be in for a rough period to end the summer, like so many late-summer swoons in the past? That's a question for short-term traders. Looking through a long-term lens, it just doesn't matter.

The trend is our friend and the trend clearly remains UP.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Do I look at this chart and think "perfection"? No, not even close. But there was one thing that I loved about last week. When the S&P 500 rallied to close at an all-time high again, market participants were in "risk on" mode, meaning that money was rotating to more aggressive areas of the market. In my experience, there aren't many signs out there that are much more corroborating than seeing ratios, like our sustainability ratios, rising strongly to support an all-time high breakout.

Should the S&P 500 continue rising and our sustainability ratios, like the QQQ:SPY, roll over and near recent lows, that would be a totally different story. For now, though, I fully embrace the bullish signal associated with this rising ratio.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps also broke out to an all-time high, but this asset class did take a back seat to the NASDAQ 100, which is where much of the money rotated. Still, the IWM is a higher risk investment in its own right, so breaking out to confirm the "risk on" mentality is a positive, in my view.

XLY:XLP

Last week, I indicated that I wanted to see this ratio, in particular, rally to support an S&P 500 breakout. Well, you can see in the above chart that money rotated rather strongly back into the XLY to coincide with the S&P 500's push back to its all-time high. This is very bullish behavior that makes it very difficult to bet against U.S. stocks.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

"The 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) remains a big positive for U.S. stocks. There's a healthy level of skepticism, as evidenced by the recent spike in this 5-day ratio. Since this is a contrarian indicator, this increasing level of skepticism is actually bullish for stocks."

This is what I wrote last week. I wanted to repeat it here, because it's very easy to see how sentiment plays such a significant role in stock market performance. The S&P 500 consolidated and went through periods of weakness while the 5-day SMA of the CPCE was at low levels, reflecting complacency or optimism. Look at where the S&P 500 was when this 5-day SMA was at its lowest level of the past couple years at the beginning of June. At that point, the S&P 500 topped when options traders were at their most bullish, buying calls hand over fist. But after wallowing around for two months, nervousness and skepticism took over, sending this 5-day SMA back up towards 0.70 and multi-month highs. And THEN the S&P 500 broke out. This is why sentiment indicators are viewed as contrarian indicators. We want to think about doing OPPOSITE of the masses, especially when it comes to options traders.

You've probably heard me talk about options-expiration week as Opposite George week, a Seinfeld reference. In this comedy, Jason Alexander plays the character, George Costanza, where he's always negative and down on his life. Jerry Seinfeld points out to George that if every decision he makes in life is the wrong decision, then maybe he should just do the opposite. Well, as you might have already guessed, when George takes on this approach, his world suddenly becomes much brighter and more positive.

This is just an analogy that highlights the importance of sentiment and trying to avoid the mistake of following the masses, especially when we reach higher levels of pessimism.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

I'll be honest, I don't know what to think as I look at this chart. It looks very similar to 2019 into 2020 when the stock market couldn't decide which way it wanted to go. So I'm just watching it for now, not really trying to determine what signal it's sending. This 253-day SMA moves very, very slowly, so it'll take some patience.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd: 

• JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
• BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
• FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
• MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
• GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
• FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
• AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
• CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
• JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
• STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
• HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
• DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
• MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
• SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
• KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
• ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
• AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
• NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
• RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
• ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
• BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
• CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
• HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
• DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
• LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
• TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
• META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
• ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
• KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
• ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
• ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
• MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
• MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
• TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: SPG ($72 billion), RKLB ($44 billion)
• Tuesday: SE ($68 billion), LITE ($65 billion), CAH ($56 billion), CRWV ($38 billion)
• Wednesday: CSCO ($476 billion), COHR ($65 billion), NBIS ($48 billion)
• Thursday: AMAT ($419 billion), BN ($108 billion), TPR ($33 billion)
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: July existing home sales
• Wednesday: July CPI
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, July PPI
• Friday: July retail sales, June business inventories, August consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Aug 10: -34.27% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  -7.31% over 54 trading days since 1950. -7.31% x 253/54 = -34.27%)
• Aug 11: +41.84%
• Aug 12: +4.91%
• Aug 13: +9.96%
• Aug 14: +1.34%
• Aug 15: +7.60%
• Aug 16: +20.23%
• Aug 17: +48.47%
• Aug 18: -40.46%
• Aug 19: -46.99%
• Aug 20: +52.91%
• Aug 21: -10.18%
• Aug 22: +1.09%
• Aug 23: +14.15%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Aug 10: -55.12%
• Aug 11: +26.38%
• Aug 12: +48.71%
• Aug 13: +29.29%
• Aug 14: +34.42%
• Aug 15: -2.66%
• Aug 16: +33.28%
• Aug 17: +22.01%
• Aug 18: -7.31%
• Aug 19: -80.72%
• Aug 20: +24.20%
• Aug 21: -13.88%
• Aug 22: +30.93%
• Aug 23: +11.22%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Aug 10: -58.63%
• Aug 11: +26.27%
• Aug 12: +15.57%
• Aug 13: -32.17%
• Aug 14: +23.16%
• Aug 15: +14.83%
• Aug 16: +54.99%
• Aug 17: -18.35%
• Aug 18: +5.90%
• Aug 19: -80.03%
• Aug 20: +15.80%
• Aug 21: +2.60%
• Aug 22: +11.57%
• Aug 23: -21.80%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

One positive signal from last week that suggests this breakout is for real is the new low set on the Volatility Index ($VIX). If the S&P 500 sets a series of new highs with a series of higher corresponding lows on the VIX, that's typically a signal that we're not likely to sustain the move higher. But that wasn't the case last week. The Volatility Index ($VIX) on Friday closed at its lowest level (14.90) since the January 9th low of 14.49. That's bullish confirmation.

A potential problem could be brewing with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) creeping back up before two key inflation reports this week - the July CPI and the July PPI. Personally, I believe the market is already prepping itself for what could be a rate hike in September. The odds of a hike were above 50%, until Friday's jobs report showed a slightly negative number. Still, current Fed Chief Warsh has made it clear that defeating inflation is his Fed's #1 goal. So, the inflation reports carry a bit more weight, in my view. Those two inflation reports will be out on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, in pre-market action.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The TNX is moving higher again, with two critical yield resistance levels at 4.75% and 5.00%. I believe the 5.00% level is more important, simply due to the psychological impact. We haven't seen a 5%+ TNX in nearly two decades, dating all the way back to July 2007. Higher interest rates can also stall, or even reverse, economic growth. As long as we're only looking at maybe one or two hikes, before further rate cuts are expected, I'm not overly concerned. But if inflation does, in fact, begin to heat up, that could be a problem, so it's worth discussing and monitoring.

Inflation. Is inflation really a problem? The long-term chart of the Core CPI would suggest NO, as it's been steadily declining since peaking in 2022. But plenty of market pundits keep talking it up and 3 Fed governors voted for a rate hike last month, because they believe inflationary conditions remain. It's not really about what I think, but rather what the stock market collectively believes. I'll continue to watch for inflationary signs that could begin to impact the stock market in a negative way. I just don't see any at this juncture. Wednesday and Thursday will provide us a better idea.

Earnings. Well, we've made our way through most of the Q2 earnings season. There will be large, influential companies reporting periodically over the next couple weeks, but nearly all of the major companies have now reported. One exception is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), which will report results on Wednesday, August 26th. Overall, earnings have been quite strong once again, underpinning the latest market rally and all-time highs.

Happy trading!

Tom