EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 24, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL) - no changes from last week, same 20 stocks
• Upcoming Earnings
• Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, August 21st. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The bottom panel in this chart represents a 20-year rate of change (ROC). I expect that we'll likely see this ROC peak in March 2029, which will be 20 years from the secular bear market low in March 2009.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Given the fact that it was monthly options expiration week and it's also light volume from last summer vacations, the slightly lower movement in this ratio isn't overly concerning. Also, we do continue to hold onto recent relative lows as support.

IWM:QQQ

This chart remains pretty solid. We're seeing small caps remain in an uptrend and their relative performance to the aggressive NASDAQ 100 is formidable as well. I'm not seeing anything to worry about from a technical perspective at this point.

XLY:XLP

I'm growing a bit more concerned about the short-term market prospects as this ratio continues to deteriorate. As I mentioned in the Live Trading Room this past Wednesday, I'm working on an analysis of intraday consumer staples (XLP) performance and how it relates to market tops. Historically, money rotates fairly heavily towards consumer staples as we approach significant market tops. Specifically, I'm watching the 30-day cumulative gains (losses) in the XLP. This 30-day cumulative performance has strongly correlated with significant tops and bottoms. Currently, the 30-day cumulative gain in the XLP is at +2.61%. That's not the type of reading associated with tops before cyclical bear markets, but it is consistent with the type of reading I might expect before a correction, especially if it continues to grow over the next couple weeks. Here's what the XLP is doing today:

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

We're in neutral right now, so I don't see sentiment playing a role in market direction at the moment.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

I still don't see a definitive signal here. This 253-day SMA has been quite choppy, reversing directions as options traders move back and forth from complacent to pessimistic.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd: 

• JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
• BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
• FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
• MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
• GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
• FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
• AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
• CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
• JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
• STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
• HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
• DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
• MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
• SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
• KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
• ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
• AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
• NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
• RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
• ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
• BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
• CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
• HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
• DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
• LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
• TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
• META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
• ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
• KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
• ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
• ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
• MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
• MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
• TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: PDD ($127 billion)
• Tuesday: BMO ($121 billion), BNS ($105 billion), INTU ($99 billion), ZM ($31 billion)
• Wednesday: NVDA ($5.25 trillion), CRWD ($194 billion), CRM ($168 billion), SNPS ($76 billion), VEEV ($41 billion)
• Thursday: RY ($285 billion), MRVL ($220 billion), TD ($192 billion), ADSK ($53 billion), WDAY ($49 billion)
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: June Case-Shiller home price index, July new home sales
• Wednesday: July durable goods, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), July personal income & spending, July PCE index
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, July wholesale inventories, July retail inventories
• Friday: August Chicago PMI, August consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Aug 24: +3.37% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +0.72% over 54 trading days since 1950. +0.72% x 253/54 = +3.37%)
• Aug 25: -22.28%
• Aug 26: -1.75%
• Aug 27: -1.57%
• Aug 28: -7.53%
• Aug 29: +28.52%
• Aug 30: -22.73%
• Aug 31: +9.88%
• Sep 1: +27.13%
• Sep 2: +56.89%
• Sep 3: -5.35%
• Sep 4: -34.19%
• Sep 5: -20.53%
• Sep 6: +16.31%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Aug 24: +11.28%
• Aug 25: +25.58%
• Aug 26: +27.04%
• Aug 27: +13.91%
• Aug 28: -16.97%
• Aug 29: +66.05%
• Aug 30: -34.86%
• Aug 31: +16.28%
• Sep 1: +57.15%
• Sep 2: +66.09%
• Sep 3: -78.51%
• Sep 4: -42.03%
• Sep 5: -48.65%
• Sep 6: -8.20%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Aug 24: +32.69%
• Aug 25: +5.58%
• Aug 26: +2.36%
• Aug 27: +31.06%
• Aug 28: +14.19%
• Aug 29: +152.41%
• Aug 30: -69.37%
• Aug 31: +1.28%
• Sep 1: +39.71%
• Sep 2: +90.17%
• Sep 3: -92.09%
• Sep 4: +33.01%
• Sep 5: -61.95%
• Sep 6: -15.74%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Max pain for the month of August is coming to an end. Yes, I know options expired on Friday, but the option effect can carry over into the following week. If calls are exercised rather than sold, market makers remain on the short side and still have incentive to take prices down. That's why the Monday that follows monthly-options-expiration Friday has such an ominous track record. How long does this options-related selling last? It's hard to say, but I believe there's an impact at least into the first couple days after monthly options expire.

Now we have September upon us. We've seen strong Septembers before. In fact, the S&P 500 has gained nice ground in each of the past two Septembers. But the tendency is to see lower prices in September.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. This is probably my biggest concern right now, along with the rotation into consumer staples. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down to 4.70% today, but it's close to key overhead yield resistance at 4.75%. Over the past four years, there's been a distinct inverse, or negative, correlation between the direction of the TNX and the direction of the S&P 500. And it's worked in both directions. I discussed this in our LiveStream event on Saturday. So which way is the TNX heading? If it spikes again and approaches 5% as we near the next Fed meeting, I don't believe stocks will handle it well. If inflation continues to be mostly benign and the TNX drops, that could provide the impetus for another stock rally into all-time high territory.

The Economy. We saw a negative jobs report for July and the August report will be out next week. I know the Fed has said it's focusing on ending the inflation threat and I'm taking Fed Chief Warsh at his word. That suggests to me that jobs could suffer in the short-term. We'll see.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term. I believe the longer-term picture remains quite bullish, so as a long-term investor, I'd stick with my long positions and ride out any near-term uncertainty. It's a bit different as a short-term trader, where preservation of capital is a much bigger priority.

Technical Conditions. The S&P 500 broke below its 20-day EMA on Thursday, but managed to climb back over it on Friday. Bouncing off a rising 20-day EMA is bullish. However, today, we've seen the S&P 500 move back below that 20-day EMA. We do have price support near the 7610 level, but that's only about 0.5% away from current price. The odds of a larger decline increase significantly if the S&P 500 fails to hold 7610 on a closing basis, in my opinion. Again, it does not change my long-term view, only the odds of a further short-term decline.

Happy trading!

Tom