EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, October 12, 2026

Tom Bowley - October 12, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists have been updated as of the Friday, October 9th close, and have been posted to our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings (EARN)
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength (EARNRS)

The Key Manipulation spreadsheet has been updated through Friday, October 9, 2026. You can view and/or download this spreadsheet from our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Technically, it was a great week for the benchmark S&P 500 as another record was set when the SPX hit 7844.52 last Tuesday. The close that day established the highest close on record at 7818.93.

New all-time highs are the absolute best sign that the secular bull market remains intact.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Rotation seems to be turning again to me, this time from bullish technology strength to more widely-spread strength. It is typical to see this occur during Q4, so I won't be shocked if it continues.

IWM:QQQ

The IWM did begin to show some relative strength last week, and it occurred when the 10-year treasury yield's ($TNX) advance slowed, or even halted the middle part of last week. In order for the IWM to continue to outperform, we're likely going to need the TNX to say below its recent high of 5.36%. Also, there are two critical inflation reports out later this week - the September CPI on Wednesday and the September PPI on Thursday. If the Core readings are at or below consensus, especially the Core CPI, I'd expect a fairly significant rally out of small caps. But let's see how that report comes in on Wednesday morning.

XLY:XLP

The S&P 500's new record high last week was once again achieved without much help from consumer stocks. The discretionary group (XLY) did move up last week, but it didn't really outperform its staples counterparts. This remains one "cautious" signal, but I would not call it bearish, at least not yet. My hope is that we'll see a definitive top in the TNX, or that the market will begin to see it. That could result in a significant investor shift towards consumer stocks later in Q4.

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

Money did rotate back into consumer stocks last week, at least for a few days. It's too early to tell if this is a new trend or simply a counter-trend rally. And while we did see intraday strength in the XLP throughout much of the week, we're nowhere near the key 106 level that's been necessary to consider a significant S&P 500 top.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The 5-day CPCE was a problem to begin last week, but it never really created short-term issues for U.S. stocks. By the end of the week, it was back in neutral territory, so it's not providing us any sort of directional clues at the moment.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction and the hesitation that traders have right now. A downtrend in this ratio generally accompanies a large secular bull market rally in the S&P 500, while an uptrend can spell trouble or, at the very least, lots of back and forth action in this benchmark index. That's been its history. Over the past year, this 253-day SMA can't make up its mind. I view this as neutral currently.

This signal is not a signal that changes very often. The italicized paragraph above has been true for awhile now. I don't expect that we're going to get a definitive signal here any time soon, but if we do, you'll be the first to hear about it.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Monday, October 5th:

JPM - pulling back with neg divergence, let's watch 20-month EMA at 300
BA - monthly RSI has been between 40 and 60 for 4 years. Enough said.
FFIV - more new highs being reached, bullish
MA - mentioned last month handle could form to 500, just about there
GS - neg divergence suggested caution in Sept and GS fell 10%, watch 830 level
FDX - excellent long-term support from 240-265
AAPL - now slightly overbought, but uptrend is very strong
CHRW - losing 20-month EMA support, so could see drop to 110
JBHT - recent selling should find support/buyers around 215
STX - consolidation continuing after massive rally, remains bullish
HSY - drop below 170 now brings 140 support into play potentially
DIS - every move up for past decade seems to get little follow through
MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, excellent support in 500-520 range
SBUX - 5-year consolidation still in play, need break above 112 or so
KRE - on 2-month losing streak, but still trades comfortably above 20-mo EMA
ED - currently trading in uptrend, near both price support and 20-month EMA
AJG - September reversal lower now suggesting further consolidation ahead
NSC - cup with handle breakout still bullish, but look for 20-month EMA test
RHI - never quite reached 250 resistance, now rolling over again
ADM - hit 2022 resistance, expect downside to 20-month EMA closer to 70
BG - pullback to 20-month EMA looks like solid long-term entry point
CVS - given strong monthly PPO, further selling to 20-day EMA buyable
HRL - monthly pos divergence, which suggests selling momentum slowing
DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
LULU - something just isn't right here, no relief; look to 80 for next support
TTD - removing TTD going forward, renewed selling below 13 very bearish
META - challenged all-time high in September, regaining strength
ADBE - 20-month EMA not quite reached, rolling over again
KMB - 115 resistance stalled advance, now looking to hold 90 support
ORCL - held major long-term support at 115, trading on its 50-month SMA
ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
MCD - monthly RSI now under 35, very oversold, could see trip to 210
MKC - breaking below May low with yield now over 4.25%; interesting buy
TSCO - monthly PPO very weak, bounce short-lived, could 20 be possible?

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: JPM ($881 billion), JNJ ($618 billion), UNH ($333 billion), GS ($257 billion), WFC ($248 billion), C ($218 billion)
Wednesday: ASML ($696 billion), BAC ($375 billion), MS ($296 billion), BLK ($165 billion), PGR ($127 billion)
Thursday: TSM ($2.38 trillion), SCHW ($168 billion), IBKR ($147 billion), PLD ($121 billion), PNC ($88 billion)
Friday: TRV ($77 billion), TFC ($56 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: September existing home sales
Wednesday: September CPI, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, September PPI, September retail sales, October empire state manufacturing survey, October Philadelphia business outlook survey, August manufacturing inventories
Friday: September industrial production & capacity utilization

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Oct 12: +10.11% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+2.04% over 51 trading days since 1950. +2.04% x 253/51 = +10.11%)
Oct 13: +73.05%
Oct 14: +5.59%
Oct 15: -11.44%
Oct 16: -5.18%
Oct 17: +2.16%
Oct 18: +63.55%
Oct 19: -131.47%
Oct 20: +89.01%
Oct 21: +58.92%
Oct 22: -89.94%
Oct 23: -7.26%
Oct 24: -22.90%
Oct 25: -42.15%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Oct 12: +38.25%
Oct 13: +135.76%
Oct 14: +20.05%
Oct 15: +2.12%
Oct 16: -1.41%
Oct 17: -28.22%
Oct 18: +32.51%
Oct 19: -83.58%
Oct 20: +9.07%
Oct 21: +141.22%
Oct 22: -60.44%
Oct 23: -40.59%
Oct 24: -46.21%
Oct 25: -35.55%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Oct 12: +8.61%
Oct 13: +78.03%
Oct 14: +40.68%
Oct 15: +9.90%
Oct 16: +138.15%
Oct 17: -42.49%
Oct 18: +6.10%
Oct 19: -18.45%
Oct 20: +57.61%
Oct 21: +32.61%
Oct 22: -41.18%
Oct 23: -45.32%
Oct 24: -56.12%
Oct 25: +1.75%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Earnings season has arrived. JP Morgan (JPM) will kickoff the "festivities" on Tuesday morning prior to the open. JPM has been trading solidly vs. its banking peers, so I'm expecting a relatively sound quarterly report. Of course, I'm totally expecting Jamie Dimon to say Jamie Dimon things, which are generally bearish. I believe the stock market discounts a lot of what he says, because he's like a broken record.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Inflation and Interest Rates. I'm not a member of the "we've got an inflation problem" camp. There has been almost zero rotation in the stock market that would suggest inflation will be a long-term problem. However, in the short-term, the "inflation card" can be a weapon to manipulate stock prices. We have two key inflation reports due out this week. The first will be the September CPI report, due out on Wednesday morning. Current consensus estimates show the Core CPI expected to come in at 0.2%. I'd look for a rally in small caps on any reading at +0.2% or below. Also, these inflation reports will impact the treasury yields. A lower-than-expected Core CPI would likely see more of a rotation into treasuries, sending yields lower. Obviously, an opposite outcome, would likely have the opposite effect.

Semiconductors. Today marks the 4th straight day of selling since the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC) tested its June 2026 high just above 43,500. It's a very important reminder that we should never assume that resistance will be cleared to the upside or that support will be cleared to the downside.

Earnings. Q3 earnings will start off fairly slowly this week, with many large cap financial companies reporting. JPM, TRV, and IBKR are all stocks showing healthy relative strength heading into their respective earnings reports, which will be released this week. One stock that has traded very poorly on a relative basis is Commercial Metals (CMC). I believe that relative strength is one of the most reliable indicators in telling us how a company will likely report, relative to Wall Street consensus estimates. It doesn't always provide us a clue as to how Wall Street will react to those reports, however. That's the difficult part.

Seasonality. September is now in our rear view mirror (whew!), but October isn't always a walk in the park, either. If we are going to have difficulties in October, we generally see it by the close on October 27th. October 28th through January 18th is the most bullish extended period of trading that we see throughout the year on the S&P 500, dating back to 1950.

Happy trading!

Tom